What Do You Think About These Numbers

What Do You Think About These Numbers

Houston, TX · Member since 2010 · 150 posts · 159 votes

I am tired of buying properties that basically need to be gutted. I am a landlord that has in the past bought SF properties like a rehabber would but instead of selling them I keep them as rentals. This is sort of a long post with alot of numbers but I would like to get some other people's views on this strategy and I appreciate anyone that takes the time to examine the details.

-Buy at house from a motivated seller for 100k that would retail for about 115k.
-20k down
-4k closing cost
-4k some repairs before rent ready
-30 year loan at 5%
-so all in for 28k
-10 year expected hold time

-Rent for $1175
-taxes $290 mo
-insurance $120 mo
-mortgage payment $430 mo
-total is $840 mo PITI

-above numbers give $335 mo cash flow
-after 50% rule = 157 mo but I adjust this up a little because I don't use a PM so I figure $195 mo is acceptable (maybe!).

195 x 12 = $2340 yr cash flow
$2340/28000 (cash out of pocket) = 8% return per year over the 10 year hold time

8% is not worth it to me considering all the hassle

If I could add on appreciation (which I know we can't depend on) it would be better. So how about adding in 1% a year, so lets figure 10k over ten years (for ease lets just say 1k per yr).

Now if I sell in ten years I figure my profits from cash flow (23,400) and appreciation (10k) and the 15k in equity when I bought comes out to ~48k.
-That 48k spread over 10 years is $4800 yr
-4800/28000 (cash out of pocket) = 17% return each year over ten years. That is not so bad.

I did not include mortgage pay down over the ten year period because I recognize there will be selling cost and repair cost upon sale. So I figure the 15k in mortgage paydown abolishes itself upon sale. Any tax advantages I do not consider and actually the 17% may be less due to capital gains taxes and depreciation recapture upon sale. I also am not considering rent increases or insurance or tax increases for this example. That would just make it too complicated. I understand that less out of pocket would raise my returns but thats for a different scenario.

So in the above scenario am I breaking any accounting laws, or formulas, or is there something I am missing. I have no accounting skills, suck at math, and am in general not a very smart person so I figured it would be good to post this and see what others think.

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Investor · Clinton, MA · Member since 2013 · 33 posts · 4 votes
12y

Being new to this, I'm doing a ton of modeling and calculations, etc. If you are looking for positive cash flow, don't try to convince yourelf you're getting 17% by adding in appreciation. Your numbers give you ~8% (using 50% rule). I suggest making your decision on that number and if that's acceptable, then the appreciation is just icing on the cake. I'm trying to be as conservative as possible in my modeling so that any deviation from model is (hopefully) positive. You can do a lot worse with your 28k in capital than 8%...but you may also be able to do better with a different deal. And I'm almost positive I haven't said anything you haven't heard before.

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  • Investor · Clinton, MA · Member since 2013 · 33 posts · 4 votes
    12y

    Being new to this, I'm doing a ton of modeling and calculations, etc. If you are looking for positive cash flow, don't try to convince yourelf you're getting 17% by adding in appreciation. Your numbers give you ~8% (using 50% rule). I suggest making your decision on that number and if that's acceptable, then the appreciation is just icing on the cake. I'm trying to be as conservative as possible in my modeling so that any deviation from model is (hopefully) positive. You can do a lot worse with your 28k in capital than 8%...but you may also be able to do better with a different deal. And I'm almost positive I haven't said anything you haven't heard before.

  • Houston, TX · Member since 2010 · 150 posts · 159 votes
    12y

    I agree appreciation should not be considered as part of your profits because it is hypothetical. The problem is I really can't see buying SFH to be worth it unless there is appreciation, unless of course you just get one of those stellar deals. The homes I have in the Houston area are worth about the same that they were worth several years ago. People often talk about the cash flow but over the years it has become apparent to me that appreciation is very important.

  • Investor · Sugar Land, TX · Member since 2012 · 554 posts · 232 votes
    12y

    @Wade G. Be sure to factor in repair reserves and vacancy. Depending on the age of the property, 6-10% of rent is what I use for repair reserves. I use an additional 4-6% for vacancy depending on the area (how fast does it lease / turnover).

    20% cash-on-cash return and a $200/mo bottom line cash flow are my minimums. Excluding reserves it comes out to $500+/mo. From other aggressive landlord investors that seems typical for rentals in the Houston area.

    There are turn-key rental wholesale companies out there, but you will pay more for those properties. That effects your returns of course. Depending on your situation and goals that could be a good thing though.

  • Houston, TX · Member since 2010 · 150 posts · 159 votes
    12y

    Repairs, vacancy, all that stuff is figured the numbers above. Turn key is not going to work...costs too much. $500 mo before excluding for reserves is good.

  • Real Estate Investor · Spring, TX · Member since 2013 · 34 posts · 7 votes
    12y

    But you forgot to calculate your principal pay down each month. Unless your getting a interest only loan part of that mortgage payment is income. That money is not appreciation or speculation it's real money that your tenant is giving you. If the home value never goes up or never goes down you still get the money. You can home equity it out or when you sell its there.

    Monthly principal payments should be added to your ROI or just get interest only loans.

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