How to time the real estate cycle?

[Alex Rossol]

I know the short answer is that you should never bank on market timing, and should generally be carefully when looking for appreciation. But I am more interested long term buy-and-hold properties. I feel like my local market (Edmonton, Alberta, Canada), is currently still on the up trend, and I was wondering if I should continue to invest in properties now, or wait for a market correction? What signs would determine what part of the cycle your local market is at? What are signs of a coming correction?

[Ash Badry]

Hi Alex,

I'm also a buy & hold investor in Edmonton and I agree with Eric, as long as a property cash flows it doesn't matter what the market is doing, the property will always be able to carry itself. Ideally you would like to be able to purchase a property when the market is in a slump and ride the appreciation train all the way through the boom, but we all know that timing the market, if possible, is a difficult thing to do.

I recently just finished a great book called Secrets of the Canadian Real Estate Cycle by Campbell, Trass & Head. It describes in detail the fundamental drivers of the real estate cycle in any market, how they change with different stages of the cycle, and how you as a strategic real estate investor should track them in your market(s) so that you can make strategic investment decisions based on what is happening. It is available on Amazon and it will definitely answer your questions.

Cheers.