To rent or not to rent?

[Collin Meador]

I bought my primary residence at the height of the 2021 COVID "low interest, high price" housing market.  I am in the military and moving within the next year, so am uncertain whether I should sell my house or rent it out.  Thoughts?

Upsides - low fixed interest rate, don't need cap gains $$ for next down payment

Downsides - not sure how much higher home valuation will go considering cooling market, significant improvement / maintenance costs coming up, may have neg profit margin if I sell now, rental cash flow may break even (or marginally positive)

Purchase price - $445,000 (put 15% down, 2.75% interest rate)

Improvements - $10,000 (+ needs new roof and A/C system within next couple years)

Estimated sale price today - ~$500,000

Estimated rental price today - $2,700/month