How have your expectations changed since COVID?

[Lesley Resnick]

Back in the 'old days' pre - 2019 covid, my expectations were simple.  I was scaling up to purchasing and renovation 10 houses a year. I was  helping 20 other investors do the same.  There were mostly doubles and triples at the time of purchase.  A few home runs.  

Covid hit and I along with other investors, I hit the brakes.  There was a moment that amazing deals were available.  Fear and doubt ruled the day and people were running for the doors.  Liquidity dried up, loans were not being written.  I am curious about the people who posted on BP, they were looking for 2009 prices and a crash?  Did they act boldly and pick up some great deals?  I am conservative by nature and took a pause when I saw it coming.  I am not concerned with the fear of missing out (FOMO).  I hate the idea of loss more than I like the the idea of hitting a home-run.

One major change in my expectations is there is no denying inflation.  Rents and prices of property are sky-rocking.  Housing increased in the 20% range last year and will do so again this year.  I have historically not look at rent increases or housing appreciation with any certainty and largely disregarded them.  My expectations of an acceptable deal have adjusted to account for these changes.  If I find singles and doubles and in a year 20% increase in price and rent.  I am in.  I am not going to pay silly money for any property, but that has not changed.

PC (Pre Covid) I was mixed on how much financing I would take on.  I felt no hurry to cash out unless I had an immediate need for the money.  I believe we are going to see rate increases and one year from today it will be more expensive to borrow than it is today.  The cheap money has also offset some of the price appreciation and increased the return on investment.  

I am now constructing build to rent properties. I am keeping some and selling some off. The housing affordability has gotten crazy. Can the average person afford the average house? In many cities the answer is, no. They will rent if they can not buy. The reality is you can rent more house than you can qualify on a mortgage. Rentals are 3:1 income to rent, purchases are 2:1 on DTI. Making it harder to qualify for a mortgage than a rental. Which has led me to the conclusion their will be an ever growing market for nicer rentals. Rentals in nicer areas at higher price-points generally have less demand and the relative pricing reflected it.

What expectations have changed for other investors?