Hello,
So I signed up for Pro yesterday and out of excitement I ran the calculator on about 50 multifamily homes to see if any would cash flow. It seems none of them would cash flow at the current price point because of how much real estate prices have gone up. Anyone else just thinking about playing the waiting game for real estate prices to at least correct? Some properties had potential but I would look at the price history and they would be 50%+ in the last two years which is crazy. I know good deals aren't supposed to be easy to find but the state of the market seems to have pushed the price too high on all deals. Also any good resources for maneuvering through an expensive market? My area is rather expensive so I am guessing my first purchase will have to be through FHA or FHA 203k.
Thanks
-Sam
Thanks for the shout out! We do our best to find the best investment opportunities/markets to present to our clients to set them up for success. This is how we've built our personal portfolio over many years by strategically investing in the areas that offer the best returns. I would agree that you need to have a team established wherever you invest, but especially out of state. It's taken us years to build the high quality teams we have in each location, and that is one of the main benefits of using this type of service along with learning from professionals in the space that have been successful investors already. I'm happy to answer any specific questions either of you has.
Here are some good resources to read through as well with other investors sharing their experiences about investing from a distance:
https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/ZacharyCole/references
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/518583-feedback-on-renttoretirement-and-zach-lemaster
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/765347-rent-to-retirement-review
https://www.biggerpockets.com/co/RentToRetirement
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/808479-rent-to-retirement-experiences
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/67/topics/952977-turnkey-in-indianapolis-through-rtr-case-study
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/12/topics/533693-anyone-worked-with-renttoretirement-turnkey
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/581730-rent-to-retirement-zach
@Sam Abraham It's the same story across the country. All of the popular neighborhoods will have sky high prices. You either come to terms with it or sit on the sidelines. I've missed the mark on 3 properties this year (on and off market). Waiting to hear back tomorrow for a bid on a HUD property. Guess what? If we find out other offers were full asking it won't affect me. That's a bad deal at that price. I know that because we did some due diligence. Like you said when you stick to your numbers you notice just how terrible it is to buy right now.
Honestly I'd use your time to learn, market research, and network. I'd increase your buying power. Making offers with FHA loan requirements really sucks. Try to get away from that if you can and be patient. Don't get into a rush; nobody in these forums can predict the future.
@Jaron Walling That's what I thought honestly. Just to lay low and basically rack up my funds. Might have to lower my 401k contribution from 15% because it eats a lot into my income right now. I actually looked into RentToRetirement for potential deals which weren't that bad and the properties were nicely vetted already. Might have to go that route if I am trying to get in now because I don't want to go out of state with my 0 experience. I was just wondering if there was a strategy anyone was executing in these crazy times.
@Jaron Walling That's what I thought honestly. Just to lay low and basically rack up my funds. Might have to lower my 401k contribution from 15% because it eats a lot into my income right now. I actually looked into RentToRetirement for potential deals which weren't that bad and the properties were nicely vetted already. Might have to go that route if I am trying to get in now because I don't want to go out of state with my 0 experience. I was just wondering if there was a strategy anyone was executing in these crazy times.
If you go this route let me know, i have been looking at this site and the other site roofstock in purchasing a property just to get into the action. My current property will be my bread and butter when i move out of california. Moving to north texas isnt much better market wise though unfortunately.
Thanks for the shout out! We do our best to find the best investment opportunities/markets to present to our clients to set them up for success. This is how we've built our personal portfolio over many years by strategically investing in the areas that offer the best returns. I would agree that you need to have a team established wherever you invest, but especially out of state. It's taken us years to build the high quality teams we have in each location, and that is one of the main benefits of using this type of service along with learning from professionals in the space that have been successful investors already. I'm happy to answer any specific questions either of you has.
Here are some good resources to read through as well with other investors sharing their experiences about investing from a distance:
https://www.biggerpockets.com/users/ZacharyCole/references
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/518583-feedback-on-renttoretirement-and-zach-lemaster
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/765347-rent-to-retirement-review
https://www.biggerpockets.com/co/RentToRetirement
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/808479-rent-to-retirement-experiences
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/67/topics/952977-turnkey-in-indianapolis-through-rtr-case-study
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/12/topics/533693-anyone-worked-with-renttoretirement-turnkey
https://www.biggerpockets.com/forums/92/topics/581730-rent-to-retirement-zach
Hey @Sam Abraham - What market are you looking in?
We are under contract with investors on 40+ properties currently (many of these investors out of state), all of which I feel strongly are great deals. So much so I've closed on a couple in these same markets this year myself, too. They range from turnkey to sweat equity to BRRRR (much rarer) - Depending on your criteria, there is plenty of opportunity still out there, especially if you zoom out and consider the numbers in years 2,3,4,5 and so on. Less MF inventory than SF, but those are there too.
Now, if you're looking for a 2% deal in an A-market, you might be waiting for a while...
@Zach Lemaster Wow definitely didn't think I would get a message from the man himself haha. I actually have a call with someone from your company tomorrow afternoon!
@Michael Helfant I am in NJ near NYC area so the prices in this area were already high prior to the pandemic. A lot of the houses in the areas I have looked into are up 25-100% which is crazy! As I mentioned before I don't think I am in a position to find deals outside of my area right now unless it is through a company that provides those kinds of services already. I am putting out my feelers right now to see what's available.
@Sam Abraham What "correction" are you waiting for, or expecting? What data tells you that there will be a correction? I bought two duplexes, two triplexes, and a STR beach condo in two different markets this year and they all cash flow with over 12% CoC on the LTR's. Inventory is very low. Demand is very high. Inflation is high and interest rates are historically low. The millenial generation which is bigger than the baby boomer generation is entering homebuying age and they'll either continue to rent while they wait for a correction, or buy. If they wait, I'm happy to have them rent from me. If they buy, they drive demand and prices higher all while homebuilding lags behind. Without getting into the details this all tells me that REI will stay hot. There is no data suggesting that there will be a correction and if you sit on the sidelines for a few years you'll always be waiting and regretting not buying that duplex today for 200k that will be selling for over 300k 5 years from now.
Look for secondary markets in the midwest for cashflow or class A/B properties in lower tax, landlord friendly states with population growth, job/wage growth for appreciation. Find what strategy works for your situation and get started now. Don't wait! There are plenty of deals out there in the right market. There is no such thing as the state of "the" market, but rather many independent markets with deals to be had. Some good for BRRRR, others for buy and hold cash flow, flip, etc. Sounds like you're trying to fit a square peg in a round hole. If you're analyzing 50+ properties that don't work in your market, change markets, or change strategies.
@Anthony King I see where you are coming from but there is definitely some cyclical aspect to the markets and real estate is no exception. I still have some ducks I need to line up before I even make an offer yet. Like I said I have some knowledge and no experience. I am still considering my options as of now. I recently talked with a real estate agent in my area that is also an investor and he said he used FHA 403k to get his first property under his belt. That might have to be the move for me. Back to the original point however is that property prices are rising faster than rent prices and because of this a lot of potentially good deals have been swallowed by the rise in housing prices. My attitude is definitely geared more towards taking action than sitting on the sidelines. I will refine my strategy and possibly market as well. Thanks for the advice Anthony!
Try cold calling! I do this a few hours every day and have found some really solid off market deals with returns the market is not offering. Just play the numbers game, be consistent and find an effective way to skip trace.
@Sam Abraham North Jersey is an interesting market. There can be a high barrier of entry but lots of potential for high rents and amazing equity. This Wednesday I have a real estate meet up, you may want to attend to hear what some other investors are doing in NNJ
@Sam Abraham welcome to BP and congratulations on jumping right in! Turnkey might be a great option for you and it alleviates most of the risk if you choose the right company to work with. I would definitely do lot's of due diligence as lots of people call themselves turnkey nowadays. In my eyes a true turnkey provider purchases the property themselves, does their own renovation and then manages that property for you on the back end. Essentially being a one stop shop handling everything in house rather than referring you to other companies. This way the experience is handled in house and you can hold that provider accountable through the longevity of the investment.
First I want to thank everyone for taking the time to respond all the advice you guys have shared has been very helpful!
@Shawn Mcenteer Hi Shawn it definitely is an interesting market. The high barrier is discouraging but those who get through get the great awards that come with it. Unfortunately I am very busy this week but if you have anymore in the future please let me know I would like to attend one of these meet ups to learn and network.
@Joshua Janus Yes it seems simply looking at the listings is not enough. I have been looking into how to get off market deals.
@Sean Prato Hi Sean thanks for reaching out. Thank you for the offer I don't think any market is out of my scope as of yet. I am definitely exploring my possibilites just to soak in what market offers what. As someone previously mentions the real estate "markets" are more localized to the area than as a whole market and its in my home state! Feel free to reach out to me to start a channel of communication. Let me just say this I am still rather new so I don't want to buy a property tomorrow but I am looking to learn about the different markets, price points and potential ways of dealing with properties.
@Sam Abraham it's not that it's harder to find good deals right now, but that the definition of what a good deal is has changed. I felt like I was overpaying on my last purchase because judging by the usual metrics it was more expensive than any purchase I had made so far. However it was my most profitable deal. The market has actually been very forgiving in the past few years, despite low inventory and historically high prices. Most who have bought properties have not regretted their purchases and have gained significant equity in a relatively short time period. Meanwhile those sitting on the sidelines fooling themselves that they can time the market perfectly or pick the perfect market have missed out on a big spike in both property value appreciation and rent increases. Waiting for the perfect time to enter the market has never been a good strategy in my opinion, and even less so over the past few years. Strategies I see working well in my area are value add (most buyers here are looking for move-in ready so those willing to take on a project can purchase, rehab, and gain a lot of equity quickly), medium term rentals (very high demand and can rent for close to STR rates while complying with regulations and being less management intensive), and flipping.
@Steve K. Yea it seems the equity gain is what is making people the most money vs cash flow. I have been looking for deals with strong cash flow potential but it looks like looking for deals with good equity potential are much more plentiful. Rising costs have just increased the barrier of entry. I spoke with another investor yesterday and he told me the housing market took a major downturn only 4 times since 1830 so the chance of it happening is extremely slim!! Thank you for your advice.
We're seeing lots of deals in Metro Detroit.
Immediate cashflow off the shelf from a retail purchase is tough right now in most areas, and no guarantee that opportunities for this will come back any time soon or ever. I'd look to force equity and create cashflow through repositioning (buy the worst property in the best area you can afford, with as large of a difference as possible in your purchase price to surrounding property values, rehab it up to the median, build equity and increase rentability that way, or switch from LTR to STR/MTR, SFR to MFR, etc.). Rents have gone up like crazy in the past year in certain areas also, so buying from a landlord who doesn't realize this or hasn't raised rents in a long time and simply bringing up to market rent can create cashflow/force appreciation fairly quick and easy. From working with buyers who have been waiting, I can tell you that hasn't worked out well as most are in a worse position to buy than they were a year ago, and have missed out on significant appreciation during that time. I don't know where the market is going anymore than anyone else but I have not seen anyone do well by waiting. Plus if the market does crash, it will be harder to get loans, most people will be even more scared to buy than they are now, interest rates may be higher, and everything will probably be more difficult in terms of management, placing quality tenants with good income, etc. so unless you're an experienced cash buyer willing to make bold moves in a down market, with an uncanny ability to time the market perfectly, and have large reserves to continue riding out the storm if it continues longer than anticipated, then you probably won't actually succeed at buying at the bottom anyway. Just look for good deals, buy them when you find them, and hope that the macro-economics happen to work in your favor would be my advice, rather than waiting.
I'm going to offer a counter view on what is available right now. As an investor, you have to decide for yourself what constitutes a good investment and what return is acceptable. So, in that respect, keep your criteria tight and don't make exceptions. You get to decide. Of course, I do agree that purchasing a property passively in a market that may provide more opportunities could be a good opportunity. RTR has a tight process and quality people over there for sure so you would be in good hands. Remember that the word Turnkey doesn't necessarily mean the same thing to everyone. So if you that route, make are you stick to the same tight criteria as you would if you were buying the house next door.
Since there are a lot of moving parts when it comes to investing, no piece of paper will be able to tell you on the front end how something is going to perform over time. Short-term maybe, but long-term, most pieces of paper and calculations are worthless.
By sitting on the sidelines, an investor is making a firm decision to bypass a couple of facts.
1. There is no certainty that pricing and valuations will "correct". Regardless of number of years in the business or units bought/sold, no one is able to predict exactly what will happen. There are simply too many markets, sub-markets, neighborhoods, etc. and variables that create the dynamics of pricing.
2. With the intro of institutional investors to the marketplace, demand is going to remain high for single-families in many markets around the country. When the institutions decide to enter the marketplace, they rarely come alone and they always come with heavy appetites. We are also seeing a phenomenon right now with lending institutions bypassing the traditional model of discounting REO and instead offering those at full price to the institutional buyers operating in their areas. Slowly, the institutional buyers are entering tertiary and smaller markets. Soon, there is a real possibility that they will be operating on some level in most MSAs in the country.
These two facts alone should lead us to consider that there may not be a correction on the horizon. There could be shifts in the market place and some adjustments in value, but there is a real possibility that most major MSAs so not see any significant price reductions any time soon.
3. Interest rates remain at historic lows. The last time inflation was this high, interest rates were in the teens and going up. Today, most investors with good credit histories and scores can get rates sub 4%. I will never forget the day I read a post from @J Scott discussing the value of the loans we are getting. He made an incredibly compelling argument that the loan itself was more valuable than the property given the fact that inflation was coming. Yes, he made the post long before we had the inflation numbers and before anyone was really talking about it.
By sitting on the sidelines, investors are intentionally bypassing the best borrowing terms they can get and hoping that a dip in pricing makes up the difference. I would argue that now is a fantastic time to acquire the best properties we can get (highest value in terms of deferred maintenance and demand) at the lowest rates we can get and allow the economy itself the build the value. With quality properties and quality service (such as management) demand in many places will be high from both buyers and renters. If we can get in on good properties, regardless of how they pencil out, borrowing at 30years in today's inflationary environment brings a return many of buying 10 years ago could only dream of. Of course, we rode the pricing up due to the discounts. Today's investor gets to ride the inflation cycle and cash in on pent up demand.
That will not be the case for every market, but will be for many.
Best of luck to you as you move forward! I'm sure you will do great.
I'll give you credit for noticing as a newcomer that you aren't finding good deals right now. New people often think they see pots of gold on every corner.
Pro membership isn't going to do a damn thing about that either. That's just how Brandon Turner gets 300 bucks out of you.
Waiting? Real Estate prices move up at glacial speeds, so you'll need one hell of an extended downturn.
This is just the state of the pool that's been being pissed in for over 10 years fueled by gov stimulus including absurdly low interest rates/yields, and now the water is yellow.
You aren't the only one disappointed.
Hello,
My area is rather expensive
So my first thought is try another area...?
I'm going to offer a counter view on what is available right now. As an investor, you have to decide for yourself what constitutes a good investment and what return is acceptable. So, in that respect, keep your criteria tight and don't make exceptions. You get to decide. Of course, I do agree that purchasing a property passively in a market that may provide more opportunities could be a good opportunity. RTR has a tight process and quality people over there for sure so you would be in good hands. Remember that the word Turnkey doesn't necessarily mean the same thing to everyone. So if you that route, make are you stick to the same tight criteria as you would if you were buying the house next door.
Since there are a lot of moving parts when it comes to investing, no piece of paper will be able to tell you on the front end how something is going to perform over time. Short-term maybe, but long-term, most pieces of paper and calculations are worthless.
By sitting on the sidelines, an investor is making a firm decision to bypass a couple of facts.
1. There is no certainty that pricing and valuations will "correct". Regardless of number of years in the business or units bought/sold, no one is able to predict exactly what will happen. There are simply too many markets, sub-markets, neighborhoods, etc. and variables that create the dynamics of pricing.
2. With the intro of institutional investors to the marketplace, demand is going to remain high for single-families in many markets around the country. When the institutions decide to enter the marketplace, they rarely come alone and they always come with heavy appetites. We are also seeing a phenomenon right now with lending institutions bypassing the traditional model of discounting REO and instead offering those at full price to the institutional buyers operating in their areas. Slowly, the institutional buyers are entering tertiary and smaller markets. Soon, there is a real possibility that they will be operating on some level in most MSAs in the country.
These two facts alone should lead us to consider that there may not be a correction on the horizon. There could be shifts in the market place and some adjustments in value, but there is a real possibility that most major MSAs so not see any significant price reductions any time soon.
3. Interest rates remain at historic lows. The last time inflation was this high, interest rates were in the teens and going up. Today, most investors with good credit histories and scores can get rates sub 4%. I will never forget the day I read a post from @J Scott discussing the value of the loans we are getting. He made an incredibly compelling argument that the loan itself was more valuable than the property given the fact that inflation was coming. Yes, he made the post long before we had the inflation numbers and before anyone was really talking about it.
By sitting on the sidelines, investors are intentionally bypassing the best borrowing terms they can get and hoping that a dip in pricing makes up the difference. I would argue that now is a fantastic time to acquire the best properties we can get (highest value in terms of deferred maintenance and demand) at the lowest rates we can get and allow the economy itself the build the value. With quality properties and quality service (such as management) demand in many places will be high from both buyers and renters. If we can get in on good properties, regardless of how they pencil out, borrowing at 30years in today's inflationary environment brings a return many of buying 10 years ago could only dream of. Of course, we rode the pricing up due to the discounts. Today's investor gets to ride the inflation cycle and cash in on pent up demand.
That will not be the case for every market, but will be for many.
Best of luck to you as you move forward! I'm sure you will do great.
This was an epic post. I would also add that after the GFC, homebuilders moved very slow. It will probably take at least another ten years for new homes to catch-up to the national demand. Folks are getting richer...salaries are insane right, millennials and the pandemic have awakened people to the positive prospects of buying a home and now everyone wants one. That combined with the market saturation and low interest rates described above.....perhaps this is just the start of a continued run up that will last another decade. Or maybe not, lol. Who know the heck knows... It sure is interesting though.
I'm going to offer a counter view on what is available right now. As an investor, you have to decide for yourself what constitutes a good investment and what return is acceptable. So, in that respect, keep your criteria tight and don't make exceptions. You get to decide. Of course, I do agree that purchasing a property passively in a market that may provide more opportunities could be a good opportunity. RTR has a tight process and quality people over there for sure so you would be in good hands. Remember that the word Turnkey doesn't necessarily mean the same thing to everyone. So if you that route, make are you stick to the same tight criteria as you would if you were buying the house next door.
Since there are a lot of moving parts when it comes to investing, no piece of paper will be able to tell you on the front end how something is going to perform over time. Short-term maybe, but long-term, most pieces of paper and calculations are worthless.
By sitting on the sidelines, an investor is making a firm decision to bypass a couple of facts.
1. There is no certainty that pricing and valuations will "correct". Regardless of number of years in the business or units bought/sold, no one is able to predict exactly what will happen. There are simply too many markets, sub-markets, neighborhoods, etc. and variables that create the dynamics of pricing.
2. With the intro of institutional investors to the marketplace, demand is going to remain high for single-families in many markets around the country. When the institutions decide to enter the marketplace, they rarely come alone and they always come with heavy appetites. We are also seeing a phenomenon right now with lending institutions bypassing the traditional model of discounting REO and instead offering those at full price to the institutional buyers operating in their areas. Slowly, the institutional buyers are entering tertiary and smaller markets. Soon, there is a real possibility that they will be operating on some level in most MSAs in the country.
These two facts alone should lead us to consider that there may not be a correction on the horizon. There could be shifts in the market place and some adjustments in value, but there is a real possibility that most major MSAs so not see any significant price reductions any time soon.
3. Interest rates remain at historic lows. The last time inflation was this high, interest rates were in the teens and going up. Today, most investors with good credit histories and scores can get rates sub 4%. I will never forget the day I read a post from @J Scott discussing the value of the loans we are getting. He made an incredibly compelling argument that the loan itself was more valuable than the property given the fact that inflation was coming. Yes, he made the post long before we had the inflation numbers and before anyone was really talking about it.
By sitting on the sidelines, investors are intentionally bypassing the best borrowing terms they can get and hoping that a dip in pricing makes up the difference. I would argue that now is a fantastic time to acquire the best properties we can get (highest value in terms of deferred maintenance and demand) at the lowest rates we can get and allow the economy itself the build the value. With quality properties and quality service (such as management) demand in many places will be high from both buyers and renters. If we can get in on good properties, regardless of how they pencil out, borrowing at 30years in today's inflationary environment brings a return many of buying 10 years ago could only dream of. Of course, we rode the pricing up due to the discounts. Today's investor gets to ride the inflation cycle and cash in on pent up demand.
That will not be the case for every market, but will be for many.
Best of luck to you as you move forward! I'm sure you will do great.
This was an epic post. I would also add that after the GFC, homebuilders moved very slow. It will probably take at least another ten years for new homes to catch-up to the national demand. Folks are getting richer...salaries are insane right, millennials and the pandemic have awakened people to the positive prospects of buying a home and now everyone wants one. That combined with the market saturation and low interest rates described above.....perhaps this is just the start of a continued run up that will last another decade. Or maybe not, lol. Who know the heck knows... It sure is interesting though.
Great points Tony. I saw a presentation recently showing current normal consumption of newly built properties at 1.1 million units a year. Unfortunately, lumber prices went sky high earlier this year and led many builders to stop building right when demand was going up. The result? We are going to complete roughly 700,000 new units nationwide and end up 400,000 units short of normal demand in a year when demand is actually higher. We are over 4 million single family houses short since pricing began to recover a decade ago.
None of us knows for sure, but I really hate to think of what event has to occur to knock demand to such a level that housing prices actually begin to go down significantly. Again, it will happen in some markets naturally, but nationwide? I just can't see it right now. I think it actually makes it much more challenging as an investor because history says there needs to be some correction, but the environment we're in is actually preventing it. That is why I am trying to acquire as much as I can that makes sense under very careful use of leverage. I'm striking a balance and actually dollar cost averaging my portfolio across the boards.
@Sam Abraham
Congratulations on signing up for pro menborship! I signed up and paid like 4 months then paused for a bit and I’ll be joining again soon.
I don’t believe in timing the market at all. I believe there are always deals you may just have to find ways to hustle harder. Double down on a marketing campaign. Find off market deals. Network, save money and keep learning. Also if you’re looking directly on the sites like Zillow and Realtor.com they are tough to find deals on but it can be done. I’ve found some potential deals that were a tad out of my investment radius but that could have worked because they needed rehabbing so I could have added value there…you can search for houses on the mls that have hidden value add opportunities such as a property that has ways to add extra square footage or that needs re habbing. Or houses that have had a typo or something causing them to appear bad to investors but apon further inspection are fine for whatever your needs are. Think outside the box and don’t let the hype of a high priced market stop you from finding deals. They’re out there! Go get one!
@Sam Abraham send me a DM I can forward meet up link to you. We have a North Jersey Meet every month... NJ can be scary at first, a matter of fact my wife and I almost bought out of state, thank goodness we found like minded people at real estate meet ups like the one we now host becuase at the end of the day the returns we producing are jaw dropping and passing all of our expectations.
@Sam Abraham there are a ton of strategies to use in todays market climate. One of the benefits is high potential for appreciation and rental increases after you purchase. This can be market specific of course! Are you looking to just stick to your neighborhood/market for your purchase? Have you considered elsewhere? I'm in the same position as you being able to use my VA loan again, but the problem is with 0% down it's hard to find a cash flowing asset.
Currently, I’m in the process of building a new build 4/3 out in Cape Coral FL. Total all in cost was right about $265k, only required 10% down, rents right now at about $2300, and post construction appraisals are around $340k-$410k depending on the location. It’s a win win win all around for me. Let me know if you’d like to connect. Just message me. Good luck!
This has been a great thread with good advice and comments. The OP makes a good point about the current market. RE prices have jumped substantially over the past 1.5-2 years, and I don't think rents have kept pace. For the LTR investors that seems like a bad combination. I'm not saying deals aren't available, but maybe there are fewer good deals and those deals aren't as lucrative as in the past. For example, does the 2% rule still apply today? I'm not seeing it.
I've been considering turnkey for many reasons I won't go into here. Since the TK company eats up forced appreciation, the investor pins hopes to cash flow and CoC return. Again, with home prices up and rents not keeping up, these metrics are difficult at best. I would be happy to learn of a market where the cash flow and CoC return is still a good deal (say, $250/mo and 10%+).