Numbers vs. Gut Feeling

[Corey J. Simpson]

Has anyone every ran numbers on a potential property and at face value the numbers say "Go" but your gut says "No-Go". I have property we're pursuing, off market 3/2 built in 1911 basement partially finished by previous owner increasing square footage from 964-SF to 2084-SF. Asking $85k but I willing to accept $70k. Kitchen still needs to be updated, deck needs to be placed, bathroom updated, replace windows, and some landscaping. Projected roughly $30k in rehab. Neighborhood is... transitioning. Comps within 1 mile and last 6 months say PPSF is $80 to $85/sf putting ARV $$166k to $175k. Nothing in this neighborhood say this house should be worth that much. Old neighborhood, low income residents. Majority of comps are from houses built in early late 1990s and early 2000s. The one comp from a house built in 1920 with similar specs within a mile is $65.49/sf. My guts tells me ARV for the property we're pursuing is $130k+/- NOT $165k. Huge difference. Has anyone had a similar dilemma, if so, what did you do?