Duplex: Keep Coming Back To This.... Is it good, though?

[Brian Ellison]

I'm looking at a duplex in a small college-town (enrollment ~1,000) in a smaller town (~4,000) outside Atlanta. The duplex is a 3-minute walk from the campus, and several other properties on the street have been purchased and rehabbed by investment groups. 

• Purchase price: $160k (list: $190k, comps $160k on same street purchased <2 mos ago)
• Financing: Traditional, bank financing: 20% down, 4% interest on 30-year loan
• Rehab: $8,000 est - paint walls, counters in kitchen; ARV: $200k
• Rents: $1,000/unit after light rehab
• Expenses: $1,237/mo (inc taxes, ins, 5% R&M, 5% CapEx, 5% vacancy, 8% mgmt, and $611/mo mortgage)
• Cash Flow/CoC: $762/month, 20% CoC return

Numbers look good... here is the dilemma: Smaller population in the area and I'm really relying on the growth of the on-campus student population to drive the return here. Plus as a first-time investor, I'd be competing with larger investment companies on the same street for a limited college population (they have a similar, rehabbed duplex that's listed for rent online - so 2 units). Also, wouldn't the same investment group that purchased the other 3 properties want to buy this one as well - if they passed, do they know something I don't?

Am I overthinking this deal, or is there really a higher-risk than the numbers show?