Which US markets with strongest long term potential

[Bobby Kumar]

Dear fellow BPer's

I am a newby that would love to get some advice from the Masters on which market to focus on for my next investment property.

A bit of background on me: I am in my mid 40's and have a W2 job which I enjoy and pays well. I live in the Boston area. My real estate investing is really a mechanism to diversify my income in retirement which will likely be in about 15 years if I play my cards right. I don't need the cashflow right now. My goal is to have enough investment property cashflow to fund to my basic living expenses and use my stock/401K investment proceeds for splurges, travel, inheritance for children, etc. I am just starting off my REI path and so far am in the process of buying my first 4plex in the Boise/Meridian region which is essentially a turnkey type new construction property. I don't have much time/desire to spend managing/rehabbing my properties, hence the turnkey. I chose the Boise/Meridian market since I read wonderful things about it and the statics/growth, etc was impressive. Also, this property should cashflow decently even factoring in all expenses, maintenance, vacancy of 5-10%, etc. I like the company I am working with and am already thinking about the next 3-4 plex which I would like to do by the end of 2020. This company is offering other properties in Meridian and Nampa in Idaho, but also Provo in Utah along with Surprise and El Mirage in Arizona. They all have similar initial downpayments. Provo has the worst cashflow- only slightly positive which could be easily wiped out with a major repair or extented vacancy. Meridian/Nampa have similar cashflow and is near the property I will be closing on. I have been trying to learn more about Surprise and El Mirage and have only vague ideas about them right now after reading neighborhood scout reports and looking at Zillow along with city-data.

So my question is: assuming a similar initial downpayment, would you recommend:

1- get another place in Meridian or Nampa - I am afraid of being too concentrated in a smaller market, lots of new construction, and not sure of very long term prospects

2- Go for Provo despite lower cashflow, but less new construction to compete with and booming, well educated population

3- Go for Surprise or El Mirage since Phoenix MSA is so hot and booming with potentially better cash flow than Provo, but lots of new construction to compete with.

The properties I am buying would be considered B or B+ class.  

Any advice/insight you can provide would be most appreciated.

Thank you,

Bobby

[Jonna Weber]

hi @Bobby Kumar - congrats on the Idaho purchase! I know just the ones you are talking about.  You are the first Massachusetts investor I've seen investing in the Boise/Nampa area - very cool!  I am biased because I live here and love it(and my own investments are here), but I believe in Boise for the long term compared to a lot of other markets.  Good luck and congratulations!