Newbie Crunching Numbers

[Anup Debideen]

Good evening everyone, I utilized my VA loan in early 2018 and I have a 1700sqft 3/2.5 in Chesapeake, VA. With the option of being able to transfer to a new duty station or stay in the area, I'm debating on how to proceed. Please let me know if I've done these numbers correctly utilizing the four square method to determine cash on cash return.

Rental comps: $1800-2k. Using $1850 for these examples.
Utilities (elect, gas, water, sewer, cable/int) will be covered by tenant.
I'll cover HOA.
No Vacancy or Capital Expenditures calculated (original loan doesn't afford it. refinanced loan allows it but should I transfer somewhere new I'd have to fund a PM).

Original Loan: $80 Cash Flow monthly / $960 annually. Zero out of pocket money. But I have a 960% return? (Doubtful).
Refinance: $295 Cash Flow monthly / $3,540 annually. A 17.7% Cash on Cash Return.

1) Based on experience how important is the vacancy/Cap Ex fund? I ask since this is a highly populated military area for rentals.

2) Anyone invest in Virginia where I've heard laws favor the tenant even if they've violated the agreement.

Ultimately, if possible I'd do the refinance option, manage the property myself, and utilize the remainder of my VA loan to buy another property for the additional three years I'll be in Virginia.

Any help and advice is greatly appreciated. Thanks!