mini-motel room opportunity in Bakken oil region?

mini-motel room opportunity in Bakken oil region?

Auckland, NZ · Member since 2012 · 5 posts · 0 votes

Hello

I have some questions about investing in the USA and would like forumites’ opinions. I have been researching the opportunities in the US for some time now. I live in Australia.

My friend and I both found an investment opportunity with a agent (based in Australia) selling mini-motel rooms for a builder/developer (prefabrication modular housing) to house employees in the oil industry in the Bakken oil region in North Dakota, near the town of Williston. These units have been popular with investors in Europe.

The builder is using QB technology (i.e. QB paneling system) to construct the motel. The builder also has a property management company so they will make money from property management. They have sold the first phase of mini-motels near Williston, North Dakota, and they are selling the units at US$47,000. Net rental income is around $18,000 pa (after taking away property management expenses). The property management fee if 45% per annum and this figure also includes maintenance costs.

After, deducting an additional $5 per day for an upkeep and insurance fund, and advertising fees and landlord insurance premiums, I'm guessing that the 2 bedroom unit will yield approximately $14,000 per annum in income (or around $1,166 per month nett). In summary, about a 28-29% pa nett return. Projected rental income is calculated as follows: $100 per night for 365 nights, assuming an occupancy rate of 90%). All owners will contribute $5 per day to the upkeep and insurance fund. In addition to these costs, the investor would have to take out a home warranty program after the first 13 months and landlord insurance.

The property management fee of 45% pa is high because the business is run like a motel - workers moving in and out. The builder was upfront about making money from the management fee; they said their could price the units higher to being with, but decided to offer a lower price point and make money from property management as well. They are looking to sign leases with oil companies for their workers to reside in the mini-motel. There will be 20 rooms in a mini-motel.

The price point of $47,000 applies to units selling in Phase 2 of the development. Phase 1 was sold out very quickly after the project was launched in November 2011 - in this Phase, they priced the rooms at $37,000 each as an incentive for people to buy.

Comparable units of this kind around the vicinity, in the past 18 months have sold for around $85,000 per unit. The developer told me that they could price the room at $85,000, however, they started at a lower price point of $47,000 and will make money from property management instead.

I see this as commercial housing rather than residential housing - am I right? Would the landlord insurance premiums be much higher for motel-type housing than insurance for a typical single family homes in the US cities?

The builder told me that the costs of construction for a prefab single motel room is US$30,000. Do this think this figure is about right? If each unit costs $47,000 to buy and the costs of constructing the room is $30,000, then the investor is $17,000 'behind' to start with? Some people would say though, that the costs of construction does not matter and that its the land value that matters.

The builder said that with QB technology they are able to construct the motel quickly in their factory, whereas it takes a longer time for traditional motels and hotels to be constructed.

Are there any particular risks or pitfalls when it comes to investing in this type of property compared to a typical single family home? There are risks if the price of oil falls. There is a risk of over-supply of units in 5 years' time in the region.

Here is an important question - with low interest rates in the USA of 3-4% pa, why hasn't the builder convinced a bank to lend them $20 million to build a couple of developments at 36% (being a return of 40% minus 4% interest)? This is what I don't understand. Why have the builder chosen, instead, to raise finance by getting the individual investors to own the units?

The builder intends to build eventually around 1000 units throughout the Bakken region, covering Montana, North Dakota and Saskatchewan).

Is this a good investment opportunity?

Thank you for your time. I look forward to your thoughts.

Katie

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Karen MargraveBusiness Member
Moderator
Realtor, General Contractor, and Developer · Redding, CA · Member since 2009 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
14y

As a developer of smaller commercial, I would think the opportunity would be in developing the commercial that supports all that residential development! Stores, medical/dental offices, convenience stores, grocery stores, etc.

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  • Dion DePaoliPro Member
    Real Estate Broker · Northwest Indiana, IN · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    14y

    There is an opportunity to invest in commercial and residential housing in the area. The business model in my opinion is very flawed though.

    In your income calculation you assumed the unit would be 90% occupied, which is likely not true with the ADR of $100. The statistical occupancy for a limited service hotel is around 62%. For $100 a night I can stay at one of the 12 local flagged motels like La Quinta Inns and Suites in the area opposed this unknown manufactured village. Also paying $3,000 a month to live there and work is sort of counter productive to working there. Most of those workers will seek much cheaper lodging either long term or semi long term.

    The manager fee of 45% plus is the developer trying to have the owner/buyers pay for the hotel operations. The problem that you probably have is the owners do not have any control or voting rights to run the operations. (I am guessing). That aside, you can purchase a normal residential unit and pay a real estate agent to manage the property for about 10% of gross rents. If the management company goes bankrupt what will you do?

    The developer leaving almost 50% on the table is also a good indication of the lack of merit the deal has. So he could charge $87k but only want $47k? That shows little proof of concept. Last year they sold units off at $37k and now they are trying to get another $10k out of them which is probably a stretch too. So based on the sales a couple months ago he is setting the market and it is clearly NOT $87k. His sales pitch there has little validity.

    It is unknown what size and features are included in the room/unit. For your comparison, average cost of commercial construction is around $200 per square foot and the average hotel room is about 325 square fee. That means building the room costs $65k to build on site. That does not include the cost of buying the land or any of the soft costs like engendering and architecture. Additionally, you do not really see many of the big name limited service hotel companies promoting these type of structures or build outs. That sort of says something about it as well.

    It was not made clear how the developer would convey ownership of this unit to you. Condo-hotel projects for the most part in the United States has been on big failure. There is little to no financing available for those types of projects on a unit or project basis. I think you are right to question viability of the project by the developer's inability to generate bank debt interest. Other private investors would likely just look to a normal hotel/motel investment or mufti-family investment opposed to this awkward high-breed of joint ownership with modular construction. Two things which on their own are tough sales. As you pointed out, why not just fund the entire project by himself, run it and make a ton of money? Instead he is raising capital by slowly selling these units off which says he wants others to the take the risk of proving concept before he really jumps in.

    Bakken North Dakota is going through a good economic cycle and folks are investing there. The oil and gas projects there are helping attract investors and workers to the area. Holding some rental property there is not a bad idea or joining a viable project in the area not a bad idea either. This particular project is one I would pass on and not look back.

  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2009 · 624 posts · 559 votes
    14y

    Katie,
    I am not sure if I can answer all of your questions... but I might be able to provide some insight.

    I am currently working on several projects in North Dakota. A large housing development in Williston and an small apartment project in Bismarck, the capital. Also, I toured the entire oil patch in late March of this year and have clients in ND this week looking at the opportunities there.

    The opportunities are endless!

    Based on what I saw and as provided by others, every hotel/motel that has been built in Minot, Tioga, Williston, Dickinson... essentially anything built in the Western part of the state is pre-leased at around $150 - $200 per room per night for an entire year. The large oil developers are snapping these projects up fast.

    The other type of non-conventional housing in this area are called "Man-camps". As the name implies these are small camps with either trailers or pre-fibbed units placed tightly together and rented to workers. The challenge with man-camps is that every community in this area highly regulates this type of housing... with many moratoriums currently in place.

    The communities in this area prefer more permanent housing developments which encourage families and roots.

    Dion has some great comments regarding his read on this investment.
    Is it a good deal? I am not sure... but I would want to check out how zoning and permitting are going to dealt with as that could be a big challenge.

    Now to respond to your specific questions...

    While no one can predict what will happen regarding continued development in the oil fields... officials in North Dakota are planning for continued development from the current 5K wells in place and producing to 50K wells in ten years. Will it ever hit that number... probably not. Will drilling continue for the foreseeable future... I believe it will. In my opinion, any viable investment should have very short 12 - 18 month exit strategies. Anything beyond that starts to present risks which may not be mitigated.

    There are very few national banks that are operating within ND and the local banks are very conservative. You have to have a relationship with them to obtain financing... and then you still must bring at least 25% of the total loan to the table.

    I cannot speak to the builders specific approach regarding looking for individual investors... but I do know that if they are using brokers that their costs will be high... ultimately eating into the overall return on this opportunity.

    These two web site might offer more infor regarding what is going on in the oil patch...

    http://www.iqrealestate.com/StateNews.cfm/State/North-Dakota

    http://www.willistonherald.com/

    http://bismarcktribune.com/

    If you have any further questions or are interested in other types of ND opportunities just let me know.

    Best of luck!

    Pete

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    14y

    Have you considered an RV Park? The place will be full of them.....

  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2009 · 624 posts · 559 votes
    14y

    Bill,

    The challenge with RV parks is that the local communities consider these to be that same a man-camps. They are highly regulated... if you can get permits at all.

    Pete

  • Brian LevredgePro Member
    Investor · Chattanooga, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 903 votes
    14y

    I looked at the same deal and didn't like it for a couple of reasons. It's hard to see these being converted to a motel later on because there are no other amenities with the property and any additional expansion will come at a higher cost later on, which will reduce your ROI. Secondly, the units are supposed to be like apartments, yet they lack a kitchen. That means whoever is living there will be stuck eating out all the time. The developer talks about possibly later converting to three bedroom units, but that was difficult to see based on the schematics I saw.

    Eventually supply is going to catch up due to new construction. I would much rather own an apartment building that I could also probably lease out to an oil company at a premium.

  • Investor, Entrepreneur, Educator · Springfield, MO · Member since 2009 · 21k+ posts · 12k+ votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Peter Giardini:
    Bill,

    The challenge with RV parks is that the local communities consider these to be that same a man-camps. They are highly regulated... if you can get permits at all.

    Pete

    In the rural areas of the Dokatas, KOAs wouldn't be any more reugulated along a highway than a prefab commercial property I would think. Sewage is probably the biggest problem and unless the motel is on municpal sewer it will have similar issues.

    It's just from the stand point of initial investment and cashflow from each door vs. a pad and amenities of a decent RV Park and some cabins. I'd think the park would win in the oil patch. I've done both in SW Mo. the park and cabins wins. The only other thing more profitable on a sq. ft. basis is a cemetary.....lol

  • Auckland, NZ · Member since 2012 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    14y

    Thank you very much everyone for your thoughtful replies. You have all been helpful. I will write again soon with some of my thoughts about some of your suggestion.

  • EPSOM · Member since 2012 · 1 post · 0 votes
    14y

    Hi Katie
    I have the same investment opportunity at a lower 16% discounted price. Did you invest or not. Thier previous offer was fully sold out and now out of 40 units there are 8 available.
    Anyone has additional views on this please let me know.
    Thanks

  • Auckland, NZ · Member since 2012 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    14y

    Hi Pankaj, thanks for writing and I have just sent you a private message.

  • Karen MargraveBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Realtor, General Contractor, and Developer · Redding, CA · Member since 2009 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    After reading this post I had to go on to Loopnet and check out properties in North Dakota. Unbelievable! There are apartment buildings of 116 units, "listed" for $22,000,000!

    Obviously there is a huge need for housing in those areas. The question is, how many projects are already in the pipeline, and what is the number of units that will be coming on the market in a short time? Once more projects come online, prices will start to go down, so you have to get in at the right time, and not overpay for whatever you're doing.

    It appears everyone and their brother is selling their property, the question is, what areas are actually marketable areas, close to the oil production, etc.

    It's a very interesting area.

  • Karen MargraveBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Realtor, General Contractor, and Developer · Redding, CA · Member since 2009 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    As a developer of smaller commercial, I would think the opportunity would be in developing the commercial that supports all that residential development! Stores, medical/dental offices, convenience stores, grocery stores, etc.

  • Auckland, NZ · Member since 2012 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    14y

    Hi Karen, thank you for your thoughtful comments. I've gone onto Loopnet as well and saw a 5 building multifamily housing listed for $22 million in Williston.

    I agree with your comment, 'the opportunity would be in developing the commercial that supports all that residential development'. I would be very interested in hearing about commercial projects in the western Nth Dakota.

    Karen, are your development projects in California?

    cheers
    Katie

  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2009 · 624 posts · 559 votes
    14y

    As I have discussed in this post and others, North Dakota is like one giant boom town. There is a definciency of at least 5000 single family homes just in the Williston area alone.

    The need for commercial space is also huge... but the big challenge with commercial is that there are no workers. They are all in the oil fields earning $100K+.

    This is one of the reasons McDonalds and Walmart are paying $15+ an hour for help... and they can't keep them at that price.

    Of course the cost of land and almost everything else is going through the roof... so if you aren't in now, or know someone who is in, there can be huge cost challenges.

    The overall environment is a bit more settled in the Bismarck area, and even then the frenzy is starting to be felt there as well.

    For Karen... I have over 1200 acres tied up in Dickinson... what type of commercial would you propose?

  • Joel OwensBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    14y

    I consider this type of investment more speculative and when their is a boom there is eventually a BUST !

    I saw this on other commercial developments where the developer projected a certain return when the project was leased up.When the project was nearing completion the market had softened a little which hurt the returns in a big way.

    It sounds like sellers and developers are cashing in on the herd mentality and will be walking away with the most money on this.

    I haven't been there like others have but I have had talks with others about it.

    I would say do not throw more than maybe 10 to 15% of your total worth if that into it.This way if something crazy happens you are okay.If you throw most of your money into it you are playing the lotto.Some will hit it big and others will take a big loss when it falls.Odds are with the lottery you will be left in the dust.

    If I was a seller in that area I too would be cashing out selling the land or building and then take the cash and 1031 into properties that are not over inflated in different markets.

    The 22 million is an asking price and not a selling price for the apartment building.

    The only way I would take on such a price or situation is with a non-recourse loan with no carve outs.This way I cash flow like a beast and when the market hits the toilet give it back to the lender and walk away.

    Under any other scenario you can land big apartment buildings with just as much upside at much lower debt service to decrease risk and market fluctuations.

  • Rental Property Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2009 · 624 posts · 559 votes
    14y

    Joel,

    Sage advice indeed. Boom's don't last forever... the key is to get in and get out before they bust.

    The only development I am doing is stuff that I can get into and out of quickly... and if I am able to develop commercial and then sell it for some stupid price... that is exactly what I would do.

    Pete

  • Karen MargraveBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Realtor, General Contractor, and Developer · Redding, CA · Member since 2009 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    Peter Giardini Since I'm not familiar with that market, and basing my opinion on generalities, I'd say the obvious things would be those things that would support the massive influx of workers.

    The fast money would be in getting a site plan drawn up and approved, then sell off the lots to developers, and let them come in and develop it out. If you think there's long term oppportunity there and want to keep some of the project, you can build out,and lease out to national tenants, etc.

    You'd want a well planned layout with the major big box portion of the development (Costco, Walmart, etc.), Hotels/motels, then smaller national commercial retail (Walgreens, furniture stores) Food - Pizza, fast food, full service restaurants - Smaller businesses like hair salons, insurance companies, etc.

    I'd think a major thing would be entertainment type venues, (movie theaters, Dave & Busters, bowling, fun parks, or ? ) Can't work all the time! Quality of life is important.

    With that much land you can also do some residential type/RV park, etc.

    Obviously the biggest challenge is getting the workers for construction, and it would probably be necessary for builders to take their own crews (maybe cycle 2-3 different crews in, as not everyone wants to live there) since there's alot of building trades out of work right now, should be doable. I'd look into modular construction, there's alot being done in commercial, as well as housing, also steel buildings, maybe tilt up concrete, helping to shave some time off.

    It seems to me it's an area where you need to think outside the box both time and weather conditions.

    Those are just a few ideas off the top of my head!

  • Investor · San Ramon, CA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 569 votes
    14y

    Also remember, you only have about 3 months of build season left... come Thanksgiving, that area gets BRUTAL!

  • Karen MargraveBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Realtor, General Contractor, and Developer · Redding, CA · Member since 2009 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    14y

    Obviously the 1200 acres that I was addressing with Peter Giardini is not a quick project to put together. Though I said the "fast money", it would still take putting together a complete overall development plan,etc. Then the infrastructure (roads, all utilities, sewage, etc) would need to be in before selling off any lots. Add to that dealing with the various governmental agencies for approvals, etc.

    Hopefully due to the need for many of the businesses that would go in to such a development, they may have a very streamlined permitting and planning process, and possibly some great incentives for developers (tax credits, etc.)

  • Investor · San Ramon, CA · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 569 votes
    14y
    Originally posted by Karen M.:
    Obviously the 1200 acres that I was addressing with Peter Giardini is not a quick project to put together. Though I said the "fast money", it would still take putting together a complete overall development plan,etc. Then the infrastructure (roads, all utilities, sewage, etc) would need to be in before selling off any lots. Add to that dealing with the various governmental agencies for approvals, etc.

    Hopefully due to the need for many of the businesses that would go in to such a development, they may have a very streamlined permitting and planning process, and possibly some great incentives for developers (tax credits, etc.)

    Eh, I think you highly overestimate the locals desires for all those things... just as many of them wish they oil people would pack up and leave so the cost of milk returns to normal, the traffic disappears, and they can actually get into their favorite restaurant again.

    Believing the local Government is going to favor the boom over the long term locals they went to school with, dated in HS, and see at family functions... probably not your best bet.

  • Auckland, NZ · Member since 2012 · 5 posts · 0 votes
    14y

    Thank you for your comments. I've enjoyed reading the discussions and am learning more about the area now.

  • Bismarck, ND · Member since 2011 · 142 posts · 16 votes
    14y

    Fellas -

    I live, work, and invest in Bismarck so I will be able to answer any particular questions you might have.

    Fire away!

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