Advice on Syracuse RE market

[N/A N/A]

Hi, I've been considering investing in real estate for the past year. Over the past 3 months I've been reading pretty much anything I can get my hands on regarding rei. It seem as if everyone advises to get your first property in your own backyard. Unfortunately, here in the Northeast the market, although falling, is still high.

For this reason, I've been looking at other areas that seem to be popular like Philly, Buffalo, Rochester and Syracuse. Like others have said, I search for properties in these areas on different real estate search engines and see properties starting at $20k and going up. Where I am you can't find anything for under $250k. I also realize you get what you pay for.

My rei goals are as long term investment (i.e. being able to sell these properties off and 15 - 20 years) and cash in then. I have a good business now and not looking to retire on rei cashflow. I have about $75k to invest now.

Right now I'm leaning towards Syracuse. This is based upon my rookie analysis which is as follows. I'd appreciate any feedback or comments on where I can improve my analysis. I'm planning to spend a few days in Syracuse to get a feel for the place.

http://www.apartmentratings.com/rate/NY-Syracuse.html
> Rents going up from $539 to $608

Top 10 places to own real estate in 2007 (CNNMoney.com)
http://money.cnn.com/2006/12/20/magazines/fortune/bestmarkets.fortune/index.htm?section=money_realestate
> #5 Syracuse: 2007 projected price change: 4.8%
2008 projected price change: 3.6%
http://money.cnn.com/popups/2006/fortune/invguide_realestate/index.html

Places Rated Almanac
====================
http://www.syracusechamber.com/chamber_info/facts_relocation/facts.cfm
Ranks in the 10% of Best Places to Live

Current Market Conditions (RealtyTimes)
http://realtytimes.com/rtmcrloc/New_York~Syracuse
Buyers market

http://www.bestplaces.net/city/profile.aspx?city=Syracuse_NY
> Population growth is down 2.87 between 2000 - 2005
> Home appreciation was up 6.76% in 2005
> Schools spend $8,299 per student (nat avg is $6,058)
> Unemployment rate is 4.70% (nat avg is 5%)
> Recent job growth has been 2.39%
> Future job growth over next 10 years is 3.8%
> Household income is $28,525 (nat avg is $44,684)
> Race: 68.1% white, 25% black, 3.3% asian, 1.2% native american, 2.3% other
> Population in 2005: 143,101
> Renters make up 52.8% of population
> Current vacancy rate is 13%
> Median home value is $138,400
> Average apartment rent is $586 (nat avg $653)
> Crime rate: 6 (nat avg: 3)

NY Department of Labor
===================
http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/index.asp?reg=cny
> 11/2005 - 11/2006 private sector count rose 3,200 jobs (1.2%) to 271,600 jobs(the highest since 2000)
> Unemployment rate in Nov 2006 (4.1%) down from 4.6% in November 2005
> job growth concentrated in educational and health services (+1300), natural resources, mining and construction (+900), leisure and hospitality (+700), professional and business services (+500), financial activities (+200).
> job losses occured in information (-300) and manufacturing (-300)

Expansions and Contractions in area (NY dept of labor)
==================================================================
http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/cen/cnyec.shtm
> 12/22/2006: An article on December 22, 2006 reported that work has begun on the former EMPIRE BREWING CO. space in downtown Syracuse (Onondaga County). No one is saying what may be going into the old brewery-restaurant space that shutdown in 2003.
> 12/21/2006: An article reported that the last $5 million in state money for the planned 350-room Onondaga County Convention Center Hotel cleared its final hurdle.
> 12/12/2006: Cortland Plastics hopes to create 47 jobs and would manufacture blow-molded plastic bottles, as well as some food-rated packaging, and health and beauty aids packaging.
> 12/05/2006: An article reported that the LOWE’S in Oneida (Madison County) was set to open on December 5. The new store has created about 175 new jobs.
> 11/27/2006: An article reported that UPSTATE MEDICAL UNIVERSITY plans to spend $5 to $7 million to add 46 faculty members in Syracuse (Onondaga County). The new jobs will be a mix of researchers and clinicians.
> 11/21/2006: An article reported that EXCELLUS BLUECROSS BLUESHIELD plans to lease additional downtown Syracuse (Onondaga County) office space.
> 11/18/2006: C&S COS. is adding 22,000 square feet to its building near Syracuse’s (Onondaga County) Hancock International Airport. The $3.6 million expansion will allow the company to add about 40 jobs over the next few years
> 11/07/2006: An article on November 7, 2006 reported that CXTEC held a ribbon-cutting ceremony today at its new Technology Exploration and Conference Center in Salina (Onondaga County).
> 11/07/2006: reported that FIRST NIAGARA BANK announced it plans to open a regional market center at 100 Clinton Square in downtown Syracuse (Onondaga County) in the first quarter of 2007. The center will bring together about 65 employees from other sites.
> 11/06/2006: An article reported that O’BRIEN & GERE COS. plans to move its headquarters from an office park to a building in the heart of downtown Syracuse (Onondaga County). The engineering company move will bring 330 scientists, engineers and support staff to a building near Armory Square
> 10/23/2006: An article on October 23, 2006 reported that FELIX SCHOELLER TECHNICAL PAPERS INC. is making a comeback in Pulaski (Oswego County). The company announced it will add two lines and hire 125 people, more than half of them before the end of the year.
> 10/22/2006: An article reported that a HAMPTON INN HOTEL is being built on Route 31 in Clay (Onondaga County) near Aldi, Outback and Chili’s
> 10/19/2006: An article reported that a dedication ceremony marked the start of work at SUNY UPSTATE MEDICAL UNIVERSITY’s expansion in Syracuse (Onondaga County) that will include a children’s hospital. The children’s hospital will occupy the top two floors of a six-story, $118.9 million addition that will be built above University Hospital’s east wing. The addition is expected to be complete in 2009.
> 10/13/2006: An article on October 13, 2006 reported that AXA FINANCIAL INC. is staying in downtown Syracuse (Onondaga County). - 950 employees
> 10/04/2006: An article reported that the plans for the WAL-MART SUPERCENTER in Granby (Oswego County) got final approval for construction on state Route 3. Plans are to start construction in December 2006 and to open in early autumn 2007
> The HOME DEPOT in Aurelius, outside Auburn (Cayuga County), opened on October 19. It is located at Fingerlakes Crossing. They have already hired about 60 employees, both full- and part-time.
> Construction started in November on a DUNKIN DONUTS, a MOE’S SOUTHWEST GRILL, and a GNC NUTRITION STORE to fill buildings across the street from the Camillus (Onondaga County) Mall. If all goes as planned, the new stores will be open for business in January or February.

Layoffs and Closings (NY dept of labor)
==================================================================
> 12/13/2006: An article reported that two P&C FOODS SUPERMARKETS in the area are closing, one located in the Fairmount Fair shopping center and one off Circle Drive in Cicero (both in Onondaga County). The stores will close by December 30 and about 100 employees will be affected.
> 12/13/2006: An article reported that GRANITE BROADCASTING CORP., parent company of WTVH-TV Channel 5 in Syracuse (Onondaga County), filed for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy. Granite’s filing will not result in any layoffs at Channel 5, though, which has 92 full- and part-time employees.
> 10/24/2006: An article reported that DARWINS BAR closed on Oct. 21. Darwins was a popular Syracuse (Onondaga County) University Hill bar and employed 40 people
> 10/18/2006: An article reported that the merger of OSWEGO COUNTY NATIONAL BANK into Alliance Bank has resulted in the elimination of more than 30 jobs.
> WELLS FARGO is relocating 85 jobs at its Financial Leasing Rural Markets office in Dewitt (Onondaga County) to Des Moines, IA. The office will close around December 1, 2006.

Building Permits
===================
http://censtats.census.gov/bldg/bldgprmt.shtml?
> cannot find Syracuse

Job projections (NY dept of labor)
==================================
http://www.labor.state.ny.us/workforceindustrydata/apps.asp?reg=cny&app=descriptor
Very Favorable
> Accountants: $54,880 (Annual openings:80)
> Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics: $29,970 (AO:70)
> Bartenders: $14,840 (AO:110)
> Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks: $30,460 (AO:110)
> Bus Drivers, School: $29,660 - (AO:70)
> Carpenters: $37,480 - (AO:80)
> Cashiers: $15,230 - (AO:500)
> Child Care Workers: $17,310 (AO:140)
> Serving Workers, Including Fast Food: $14,710 (AO:240)
> Construction Managers: $93,730 (AO:30)
> Cooks, Fast Food: $14,590 (AO:60)
> Cooks, Restaurant: $21,590 (AO:50)
> Food Concession, and Coffee Shop: $14,580 (AO:120)
> Customer Service Representatives: $29,170 (AO:120)
> Dishwashers: $14,560 (AO:60)
> Electricians: $53,100 (AO:50)
> Elementary School Teachers, Except Special Education: $48,400 (AO:130)
> Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants: $35,410 (AO:130)
> First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Food Preparation and Serving Workers: $22,450 (AO:90)
> First-Line Supervisors/Managers of Office and Administrative Support Workers: $42,560 (AO:90)
> Food Preparation Workers: $15,550 (AO:180)
> General and Operations Managers: $89,750 (AO:70)
> Home Health Aides: $21,750 (AO:100)
> Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners: $20,930 (AO:250)
> Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers: $22,120 (AO:150)
> Lawyers: $82,740 (AO:50)
> Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses: $32,050 (AO:60)
> Maintenance and Repair Workers, General: $31,990 (AO:100)
> Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants: $22,090 (AO:80)
> Office Clerks, General: $22,950 (AO:170)
> Receptionists and Information Clerks: $22,780 (AO:130)
> Registered Nurses: $49,510 (AO:250)
> Retail Salespersons: $18,010 (AO:510)
> Sales Representatives: $50,830 (AO:170)
> Secondary School Teachers: $51,940 (AO:130)
> Secretaries: $26,530 (AO:120)
> Security Guards: $20,960 (AO:110)
> Stock Clerks and Order Fillers: $19,490 (AO:150)
> Teacher Assistants: $19,780 (AO:250)
> Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services: $25,630 (AO:70)

Least Favorable
> Architectural and Civil Drafters: $39,380 (AO:under 10)
> Chemical Technicians: $28,450 (AO:10)
> Coating, Painting, and Spraying Machine Setters, Operators, and Tenders: $27,630 (AO:10)
> Computer Operators: $31,320 (AO:10)
> Court, Municipal, and License Clerks: $34,350 (AO:10)
> Crossing Guards: $17,050 (AO:10)
> Dispatchers, Except Police, Fire, and Ambulance: $29,990 (AO:10)
> Electronics Engineers, Except Computer: $73,650 (AO:10)
> Engineers, All Other: $66,780 (AO:under 10)
> Forging Machine Setters: $34,240 (AO:under 10)
> Human Resources Managers, All Other: $76,460 (AO:under 10)
> Insurance Underwriters: $52,720 (AO:10)
> Judges, Magistrate Judges, and Magistrates: $114,850 (AO:under 10)
> Maintenance Workers, Machinery: $40,540 (AO:10)
> Occupational Health and Safety Specialists: $55,440 (AO:under 10)
> Telemarketers: $17,800 (AO:10)
> Travel Agents: $32,430 (AO:under 10)

Crime (Division of Criminal Justice Services)
http://www.criminaljustice.state.ny.us/crimnet/ojsa/indexcrimes/county_totals.htm
===================================================================================
Onondago county 2000 vs 2005
Index Crime: down 15%
Violent Crime: down 2%
Murder: down 10%
Rape: up 35%
Robbery: up 20%
Agg Assualt: down 13%
Property Crime: down 17%
Burglary: down 7%
Larceny: down 23%
MV theft: up 9%

Tax Rates
====================================
http://www.ongov.net/Realproptax/taxrates.html
County Purposes: $13.705600
City Purposes: $7.189600
School Purposes: $16.928500
County Water Purposes: $0.077600
Total City Rate: $37.901300

Destiny USA
=========================================
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DestiNY_USA
Plans, which currently include over 4.5 million square feet (400,000 m²), consist of 13,000 hotel rooms, an indoor aquarium, an indoor recreation of the Erie Canal, a stadium and performing arts center, three golf courses, a 100 acre (400,000 m²) glass-enclosed indoor park, and a 20 acre (80,000 m²) artificial lake. This complex is to be known as DestiNY USA, and plans for it were first made public in April 2000. There have been constant struggles with the city, county, state, and federal government for tax relief and financing to make this project a reality.

The Pyramid Cos. claim this resort would create approximately 120,000 new jobs and bring millions of tourists to the Syracuse area. These benefits would be a significant economic boost to the area, which has been hard-hit by corporations downsizing or moving away from Central New York.