Analyzing Deals - Phoenix Metro Area

[Peter Khoury]

Hi All,

I am a newbie investor and am working to evaluate properties and want to see if my estimates are in line with the Phoenix area.  Current looking at single family homes, finding it very difficult to cash flow but I want to at least see if my numbers are in line with the market from experienced investors.  This would be a property located in Surprise, AZ, newer construction single family home: 

List Price: 205,000

Purchase Price: 190,000

Estimated Rent 1300

Expenses:

P&I : $891.96

Taxes: $74

HOA: 35.66

Insurance: 62.16

Repairs/Maint (5% of rent) : 65.00

Cap Ex (10% of rent): 130

Vacancy (7% of rent): 91

Total Expense: 1,349.68

Net Income: -49.68

Obviously the purchase price would have to come down for this to make sense from a cashflow perspective but I want to know if the estimates are accurate based on a newer build (20 years old) for repairs and maintenance for a property in Arizona.  Am I overestimating or underestimating these expenses?  I would also be managing the property myself so I did not include that cost in the analysis.

I think the hardest now will be finding a property that actually cash flows.

Thanks in advance!