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Updated over 7 years ago,

Account Closed
  • Washington, DC
2
Votes |
6
Posts

Reality Check: 20% discounts, 10% appreciation, 2% cash flow?

Account Closed
  • Washington, DC
Posted

I am new here, and along with the Bigger Pockets guides, I recently read Brandon Turner's "7 Years to 7 Figures."  That piece lays out 3 fundamental principles: get a good deal when you buy (20% discount), appreciate the property early on (10%+), and ensure a certain level of cash flow (2%+).  I appreciate the article and understand the principles at play, but I find the specific number goals to be unrealistic.  I'm hoping that's just from my lack of experience, but I'd like some insight before I jump into this market.

First, something is seriously wrong with a market if a person can ever (let alone consistently) get a 20% discount. If a property is listed at $100k and you get it for $80k, that means that either the property was never actually worth $100k, or that the seller was wildly misinformed or under severe duress.  Maybe this business plan hinges on restricting your search only to the latter situations; indeed, he says that "less than 1% of properties currently for sale are worth buying."  If smart, Bigger-Pockets-reading real estate investors require a 20% discount, and only 1% of the properties for sale meet that criteria, won't there be competition for those properties, which will drive their price back up?  Again, I don't intend to be a nay-sayer; I'm just new to this and don't see practical, repeatable, consistent ways to find 20% discounts on properties -- please fill me in!

Second, I don't understand how one can "force 10% appreciation" under the circumstances described.  If I buy a $100k property, and my only investment is the $20k down payment, how do I make the property $10k more valuable?  I guess it's assuming that you bought the property for $80k, so your 20% down payment was actually only $16k, giving your $4k to make improvements.  But I see two problems with this.  First, this assumes a 20% discount (see question #1).  Second, this assumes that you can spend $4k on improvements and get somebody to believe that its a $10k improvement, which again, assumes that someone is misinformed.  Am I misunderstanding?

Third, the plan assumes that you can earn $200 cash flow.  As I understand the material on Bigger Pockets, you charge rent, save half for reserves/repairs, then use the other half to pay the mortgage, and what's left over from that second half is your cash flow.  If we bought a $100k home with $20k down at 5% interest, the mortgage/tax/insurance would be roughly $600/month.  To assure $200 cash flow, the rent price would have to be $1600/month: half ($800) for reserves/repairs, and the other half used to pay $600 mortgage to allow $200 cash flow remaining.  I'm sorry, but the $100k homes that I'm looking at on Zillow will never, ever rent for $1600. 

Again, I'm not trying to be difficult or argumentative.  But, before I make a plan and commit capital, I need to know that the principles work out in realistic, real world dollars and cents.   Any help is appreciated!      

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