looking at my first brrrr - would love some advice

[Susan Lisman]

Hi Everyone, 

I am deciding whether or not to put in an offer on my first brrrr - and I would love some advice.  I already did an inspection (a bit backwards, I know) and I have literally run the brrrr calculator so many different times I am sort of losing my mind and losing track - can someone offer advice on this project.

Property: 3 bed, 1 bath asking $159,000

The property is currently rented at $1400 a month 

Taxes: approx $2400

All of the systems - heat, electric, air were in good order

Inspection report: 

THe following based on professionals

water in the basement - may need a french drain/sump pump .  Ballpark figure $4500

limited asbestos/mold (bathroom only) $3000-$5000 (from environmental clean up company - would include bathroom demo)

chimney work - $300-$1500 depending on state of liner (assuming $1500 for rehab purposes)

pest control - $513 for year 

Oil tank removal - $600 fixed

The following are estimated costs based on research and not professional estimates 

kitchen flooring - $1000 - $1500

Concrete outside - $1500

replace carpeting/flooring: $1500

additional masonry work - $2000

Painting: $1500

Misc - $1500

New appliances: $1500

Buffer: $5000 - $8000 for misc.

I am assuming insurance costs of $1500 per year

My plan:

Offer $125-130K

I believe I will be able to rent it for $1700 according to comparable rents in the area

I will be accepting a vacant property - current lease ends June 30

I will be financing this deal through a line of credit at 3.5% - so a cash buy and money for reno

I will then refinance my invested money - approx $165,000 assuming a rate of 4.25% freeing up my line of credit for the next cash purchase.

ARV expected at $185000-$200000

I am reserving - 5% for vacancies, 5% cap ex, 5% repairs and 6% property management (which I am doing myself)

Advice???? Am I over or underestimating repairs? 

I have it cash flowing about $205 a month