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Updated almost 8 years ago,
What would the experienced investor do? CA and out of state
Hello BP,
I'm curious what the experienced investor would do in my situation. All opinions and advise are appreciated!
My situation:
I'm getting ready to move out of my first purchase in Sacramento, CA. The property was purchased with 5% down as a primary residence, and I've house hacked to keep my holding costs relatively low.
A good amount of equity has been built through the rehab process, and a bit of luck due to increased housing prices in Sacramento. The supply of housing is down in the Sacramento market, and we've seen large increases in both the prices of homes and rent. My understanding from online research, and reading the BP forums, is that Sacramento should see continued increases in rent, and likely appreciation as well.
If I were to rent my current property, I'm expecting to net $100-200 a month (after PM takes over) depending on the rental price. I've had three PM companies walk the property, and they estimate the rent would range from $1600-1800/month. My PITI will be covered if it rents anywhere in that range, but there is a possibility that I don't net money each month. The variables in this case are landlord insurance which I've only had quoted from my current provider, and potentially the cost of a gardener (if it is not included in the rent somehow).
I am fully aware that I'll incur both short-term and long-term capital expenditures. Which, would be a burden to cover with little to no cash flow.
However, I would have a rental property in CA, with an estimated ARV of 315K (this is a conservative number) -350K on the high end. The amount owed on the property will be about 239K when I move out. So, my estimated equity in the property is 76-111K in current market conditions.
*I've had two successful realtors in my area provide me with estimated ARVs, but only one walked the property. Regardless, I feel pretty good about the numbers.
If I were to sell my current property, I'm estimating I'd net 15-30K profit. This is after rehab costs, holding costs, real estate fees and capital gains tax. I'm basing this of a Seller's Net Profit sheet that an agent mocked up for me, at a sales price of 329K.
My Options:
A) I could rent my current property out, move in with family, and save my monthly salary as I watch the market for 6 months or so. This would allow me to save enough funds to purchase another primary residence in Sacramento, for 250-300K should I choose. The issue is, there isn't a lot on the market, but there are still houses to be purchased if you really look.
I would then have a primary residence, and a rental. Which, would give me the tax benefits of both. Also, a relatively large amount of equity (to me anyway) in my rental, and the opportunity to build more equity in my new primary residence. I would repeat the process of buy, add-value, house hack and then determine to sell, rent or hold based on the numbers.
B) I could stay in my current property, with my built equity, and not fight to find another deal in my current market. Then, use cash, or a combination of borrowed equity/cash to put a down payment on an out of sate rental that is far less expensive, and would cash flow. I have never purchased a property out of state, and I do not have a target market.
My Question:
Given the information and options above, what would the seasoned investor do in my situation? Please keep in mind that I'm a young investor, with minimal capital in the Sacramento, CA market. I'm also conscious that our market could be reaching a peak soon, and that the US economy is likely in for a shake-up.
Thank you in advance for any advice/opinions!