Do my cash flow numbers look correct?

[Kristopher Windsor]

Hi, I'm new.

I want to make sure my math is right and that my cost numbers are in the right ballpark so that I can estimate cash flow before I buy my first property.

For practice I am looking at this one: 6432 Clark Rd, Paradise, CA 95969

My numbers are based on the data I found online; I would need to confirm and verify many things before actually purchasing.

Purchase:

• Sale price: $99,900
• I would try to buy it for $95k (it has been on the market a long time)
• Closing costs: $3k (realtor / paperwork) + $1k (my travel costs during closing, possible home inspection, etc)

Loan:

• In this scenario I am looking at a $60k loan and $39k cash
• Assuming I can get a 30-year loan @ 5.5%
  (Is this a reasonable assumption? I have no debt and a decent income.)

Monthly:

• $1,320 Max gross rent ($15,840 / yr)
  Source: the listing
• $200 Property repairs / maintenance
  Source: guess? I am assuming the roof and septic do not need immediate repairs; I would check this before buying
• $175 Utilities (water / gas / electric / trash)
  Note: I am not sure if the tenants pay for this / would need to check
  Source: guess? and personal experience on typical utility costs
• $174 Mortgage interest (51% of $341 total mortgage payment)
  Note: I know the mortgage payments are front-loaded with interest, but the long-term average is a more fair number in my opinion
  Source: mortgage calculator and loan rate assumed above
• $167 Mortgage principal (49% of $341 total mortgage payment)
• $132 Property manager @ 10%
  Source: forums / guess?
• $119 Expected loss of rent (vacancies and non-payment) @ 9%
  Source: rental vacancies are 1% vs 25% of homes rented, general lack of income in the area suggests higher chances of non-payment
• $95 Property tax ($1,140 / yr)
  Source: based on property's tax history, tax is 1.2% of assessed value; assuming assessed value = purchase price
  
• $80 Property insurance
  Source: guess?

Tax considerations:

• $144 / mo depreciation on the buildings (taking half the purchase price over 27.5 years)
  Source: approximation?
• Mortgage principal is not tax deductible and cancels out depreciation and then some (extra $6 / mo towards tax)
  Note: this might be a non-standard way to present this calculation, but I think it works?
  Source: assume 25% tax on the difference ($167-$144)

Totals:

• $172 / mo cash flow
  Source: $ ( 1320-200-175-174-167-132-119-95-80-6 )
• 5.3% Cash on cash
  Source: $2,064 / yr cash flow over $39,000 invested
  
• 2.1% Cap rate w/ mortgage
  Source: $2,064 / yr cash flow over $99,000 total cost
• 6.2% Cap rate w/o mortgage, and the depreciation deduction remains
  Source: $2,064 / yr cash flow + $4,092 / yr mortgage over $99,000 total cost

Do my numbers look right? Wrong? Thanks,