Is finding a good deal really this hard?

[Alan Verde]

I think I am looking for validation of my understanding of the status quo. My intended market is central-south NJ, which is pretty competitive and can be high dollar real estate. 

I've been looking on Zillow/Redfin and came to the conclusion that any of the listings there are "too late". Seems like too many middlemen are on the deal by the time it hits the MLS. Like stock pickers on CNBC - too late. While I've found some deals that appear do-able, the numbers never make sense. Often times I even see destroyed homes (perfect for a flip) that sell almost as much as remodeled homes. Impossible to find any sort of margin. Best case, maybe 1-2% CoC.

As I learn, I am coming to the conclusion that all the good flip deals are done through private sales. I signed up for PropStream and learned about skip tracing. Slowly starting to realize that this how it all happens. Like all these properties I see only where people sell a property for $700k which was purchased for $300k just 6 months prior. Text/call/email 1,000 property owners and hope to find one that will give in and take cash to just exit no questions asked. That this is really knocking on doors and selling type of business. 

Is that the real game here? Am I seeing things clearly? Is there room for a person like me who likes building and working in spreadsheets? 

[Chris Seveney]

Quote from @Alan Verde:

I think I am looking for validation of my understanding of the status quo. My intended market is central-south NJ, which is pretty competitive and can be high dollar real estate. 

I've been looking on Zillow/Redfin and came to the conclusion that any of the listings there are "too late". Seems like too many middlemen are on the deal by the time it hits the MLS. Like stock pickers on CNBC - too late. While I've found some deals that appear do-able, the numbers never make sense. Often times I even see destroyed homes (perfect for a flip) that sell almost as much as remodeled homes. Impossible to find any sort of margin. Best case, maybe 1-2% CoC.

As I learn, I am coming to the conclusion that all the good flip deals are done through private sales. I signed up for PropStream and learned about skip tracing. Slowly starting to realize that this how it all happens. Like all these properties I see only where people sell a property for $700k which was purchased for $300k just 6 months prior. Text/call/email 1,000 property owners and hope to find one that will give in and take cash to just exit no questions asked. That this is really knocking on doors and selling type of business. 

Is that the real game here? Am I seeing things clearly? Is there room for a person like me who likes building and working in spreadsheets? 

So I will share an example in our space as well about people complaining they canot find a deal - and the issue is people can find deals but people cannot find a grand slam and they see people making tons of money (on social media...) but they never pull the trigger. 

so lets say you find a property in a great neighborhood that is well desired and get it for 5%-10% under market value. It may not have great cashflow, but in 5-10 years it may have appreciation in value and rents to cash flow. Whats wrong with that?

WE are seeing people very picky (which is ok) but want the perfect deal for the perfect price. This most likely will never happen.