Sell or Rent

[Keaton Shuttlesworth]

I have 2.75% note on a 750k mortgage in Seattle. I purchased in Feb 2020 just before Covid and my estimated price appreciation is roughly 250k. Due to family reasons, we are considering moving to Austin. Between local tax rate differences and current mortgage rates, it's not an immediately favorable buying situation. In effect, I'd be walking away from a 4k monthly PITI for a ~1.2m asset and into a 3.6k PITI for a ~700k asset assuming I plunked all of my equity into the downpayment.

I'm not super interested in being a landlord but using various estimator tools suggest I'd clear perhaps 20k per year in profit if I sold 3 years later. (This isn't a hard timeline but I'd at least take a look given that would be my last opportunity to avoid capital gains.)

How is this forum evaluating rent vs sell scenarios in historically hot markets with a sub 3% loan?

Considerations:
1. I would use a property manager (10% fee)
2. Without the equity, I couldn't purchase in Austin for ~12 months (maybe a little less or more).
3. I'm married (so capital gains exemption is 500k, as I understand it)

4. The property is unlikely to be cash flow positive in the first year. I'd probably be flat or slightly in the red. I can afford this.