Help me by assessing my first multifamily deal screening!

[Faisal Tahiri]

Hello BP community, this is my first (of hopefully many) posts

I'm starting out my RE investing journey and hoping to lock-in a 4-10 unit MF property as a first milestone. I'm looking for help double checking my work on analysis. I don't intend to make an offer yet but would appreciate feedback on my approach!

Step 1: Researched 6 markets in terms of 1-year unemployment trend, 10-year growth rate, and crime level. Picked one that looked promising.

Step 2: Looked across Redfin, Zillow and Trulia for MF properties in this market. 

Step 3: Reviewed my first listing ($460k, 5-unit turnkey property with gross annual rent  rental income of ~$50k). Based on my analysis (found an analysis spreadsheet online: BP post Master calculator copy - Google Sheets) I'm seeing -3% CoC return in the first year and I'd probably pass on it unless there'd be obvious opportunities for forced appreciation which in this turnkey scenario might not be the case.

The listing outlines property taxes as $4k/year and property insurance at $1.5k/year.

Some of my assumption:
-Vacancy reserve: 10%, Maintenance reserve: 10%, Property management fee: 10%, 
-20% down, 7.5% interest rate = ~$100k cash investment.
-Based on the above and not touching the rental rates I estimated an NOI of $27k and mortgage expenses of ~30k.
-CoC return in first year would therefore be (-3k/100k)% or -3%

From listing:
-$50k rent roll, $40k current NOI, 9.1% cap rate

Which is confusing.. are they optimistically listing the NOI? Cap rates for class-A/B MF suburban homes in this area is closer to 6% (similar to my analysis spreadsheet). Some clarity here would be much appreciated!

Unsure if this is or is not the type of post for this forum, new to BP as well.