Newbie refinancing plan

[Trevor J Dammon]

Hi all,

Newbie here. Creating a written plan with some spreadsheets. The basic plan is to buy a duplex with 20% down (100k down for a 500k property). Annual cash flow around $2,500. After the property has appreciated and I've paid enough of my loan down I will refinance and cash out enough money for a 20% down payment on another property. Seems like it takes about 7 years for this with a 5.5% interest 30 year mortgage.

I'm not sure if this is even a good strategy but I am just learning.

Is it fair to assume 2% appreciation?  I know that is the average but over 7 years its much harder to predict. Is there a better way to estimate when I can refinance?