While the chance of appreciation is there, I agree that you should never invest on the possibility of appreciation alone, as no one can predict how the market will behave next month, let alone in 10-30 years. 

Tenants currently pay for all utilitiesSo the total comes out to $2,300 for my monthly costsI know I can rent the duplex for at least $2,600-2,700 (some comps as high as $3,000 but I am trying to be conservative) That leaves me with at least $300 cash flow/ month, and that would be on the low end of my predictions. 

Guys,I would like to know your opinion on this duplex deal i am planning to make an offer on.its a 2/1 up and down in a good area. rent estimate for the area are $650 , i predict the upper will go easily for 500 and lower for 800.Price:- $83.9k Taxes:-$2100, 175 per monthRent:- $1350 (conservative)insurance:- $70management:-$130 (10%)maintenance(7%) $91vacancy rate:- (8%) $108cash flow: $427cash on cash financed:- 27.9%cap rate:- 10.4%It looks good on paper to me what are the things I am missing here?

But the more diversity in potential comps the less likely you can accurately predict the value an appraiser will determine.

I guess my rant is not 100% about predicting the storm.

Sorry that you got caught up in that web.. its really a sad situation.. and one that the experts on BP predicted unfortuantly.

Personally, I'm always looking at which areas I could predict to be growing or appreciating in the near future, and thinking of how I can invest there.

Although you can't predict such events, its a good gauge.  

I think REO is a LOT more predictable than short sales  On the retail side of real estate sales, I avoid them like they're radioactive.For REI, I watch for properties that won't survive FHA/VA/USDA appraisals - but you have to act VERY quickly to get your offer accepted before the HGTV crowd shows up and over pays.

The banks have wised up here.This is not a prediction of the future - just where we are at now.