I'm also looking to acquire an STR and am also finding it difficult to accurately predict revenue.

Or do you predict a more stable renter long term renter type (???)

(For example, if they could predictably produce 30% annual returns with low risk, many would be happy to invest.) 

To keep your other reserves in tact see what you can come up with through rideshare/food delivery/etc...You're in Dallas so it's probably more than you think if you work Cowboys games, concerts, college football, early morning airport runs, and/or late night. 

Metro Detroit is more like a typical suburb area so its easier to predict and you can take a macro approach.

From an objective perspective, cash flow is decent, market appreciation is very solid and predictable, and the demand for short term rentals in this area is growing rapidlyAs mentioned above, you do have a few restrictions to take into account when purchasing in Naples, specifically, but these are easy to navigate as long as you know what to look for.

Their predictions are as good as weather forecasters...I live in Silicon Valley and folks have been predicting crashes since last 5 years , and homes go up 10-15 % a year...

I recently read a local business journal article that predicted insurance was going to go up by approximately 20%.

Having larger bathrooms and not being crammed into a small space. 5) Seeing return on investment, historical appreciation (which doesn't necessarily predict future appreciation), rental comps for LTR, MTR and STR so prospective buyers if your market area supports MTR or STR. 

If rates do the opposite of what the street is predicting, and HELOC rates were to rise, and I can still comfortably cover that higher HELOC rate, and all my other ducks are in a row, why not leverage the equity in my home if other ducks are in a row?