So unless you are prepared to go through all of the hundreds/thousands of your addresses to make sure that they aren't on the MLS first, you're absolutely going to mail to houses that are currently listed with another realtor and odds are they aren't going to like it. 

What are the odds? 

I bet I set 50 showings, had 25 of those show up, and took apps from 20.  

You're looking at $375K for purchase plus rehab so I'd say it's not a good deal.Also, I would never bet on appreciated ARVs in a flip project.

Ben comes up with odd or extreme examples that where it doesnt work to try and disprove it. remember its a guide to start with as we all already know, anyone can come up with examples to disprove the 2% or the 50%, they are not meant for these extremes.

Granted, not all of these are going to be relevant to you but I'd bet at least a few thousand will be.

All jokes aside though, I bet somewhere some landlord has a story involving liquid nitrogen...

See, that sounds odd to me)I have never filed a homeowners claim before.

So if it is explainable then HML is my best bet?

Honestly the best bet would be to liquidate quickly (at least priced to sell), the market is only going down hill over the long term.