Unfortunately there's no way to know until after the deal is complete and the money is counted.Having said that, there are advantages and disadvantages to each approach that have less to do with anticipated performance, but are still important, and can effect actual performance.Direct investments have the advantage that you have complete control of the process. 

Might have to do 75% refi in order to get all our cash out.If we don’t get the anticipated ARV we will sell it, ideally we want to keep it.Anticipated cashflow is 400 ish depends on final number.

But it turns over...but almost anyone renting for $1600 mo can buy ...if they can find a house.Clean, repair, fix anticipated repairs while the place is vacant.  

The short term flip funding amount would be roughly $55,000, with anticipated net profit of $30,000.  

The margins are slim and if anything is over what is anticipated you are sunk.If you have 20k plus why not just buy a property cheap and flip it to build capital??

I do see some businesses setting up near the anticipated stop in Merced.

This also assumes that terms of the loan remain the same for a maximum of ten refinancing’s, e.g. if a balloon payment was every year and the sale was anticipated in year 15 you would only have closing costs every year up to year 10.

If one of these firms brings you a deal with a major tenant, I would anticipate you will likely pay 5-6% of the base/initial lease term, paid half at lease execution and half at rent commencement.  

The leases are based on anticipated sales per sq ft.

As the economy recovers and unemployment subsides I anticipate this market will pick up faster than the overall market.