@Lucas Carl assume and be prepared for the worst and hope for better

Look at the absolute worst month and see if it was still positive. and 11cap is pretty high unless you are in a war zone, I would double check all those numbers and all your expenses, but if they still pan out, I would pull the trigger.

That's a pretty extreme view even for the worst case scenario.

Not renewing would be the worst decision here.

The worst thing we can do is allow our impulses rule us and abandon all systems and protocol

As they say, every worst situation provides big opportunities... 

Any rent growth forecast published more than a couple of weeks ago is no longer reliable, and any forecast made now or in the near future is suspect at best, or just a guess at worst. 

-Soak up knowledge like a sponge through podcasts, these forums, books-Learn how to analyze property (or partner with someone who can)-Make sure your personal finances are cleaned up and you have some cash for investing and for emergencies-Pick a market-Build a team-Take ACTION and put in offers-Constantly network with other investors and people in the industry-Learn from all the mistakes you'll make (you WILL make a ton)It's not easy, but with focus and putting in the work, anyone can do it.Best of luck.

She also offered to do a 6 month lease now but that would land us right into the worst time, November, if she does move. 

Worst they can do is say no.