As to a decline of 30-60%, I strongly disagree with your conclusion that it will hit major metros like Seattle, NYC, SF the hardest.

I think there are a few dynamics.....investors continuing to buy and putting out more inventory.....STR owners getting crushed and turning to LTR....people who would normally sell, but have 3% interest rate turn it into investment property vs selling....maybe also a bit of declining credit quality ...higher credit card debt, less savings makes people think they won't qualify, so when they normally would have moved, don't want anyone checking credit.   

Looks like 30x more exposure in a declining business… which one day may be part of your inheritance.

We are seeing unemployment numbers decline, hourly wages now increasing at 2-3% and yet the workforce participation rate is only 63%.  

It's an old manufacturing town that's seen it's population decline from around 10,000 to its current population of around 6,500 since the 1950's or so.

I work in the oil/gas industry and while the recent events are actually beneficial to this region (long story on how -$40 oil is helpful), we've seen a significant decline in E&P activity for this area over the past 12 months.

@Rob ChiangI saw some with 7%+ cap rates on T12 numbers but they were in locations with severely declining populations.

Have we seen a decline on investor interest in Denver County due to the landlord licensing policy in Denver?

Its more in the "path of decline" than in the "path of progress".

So when her lease expired, we declined to renew.