It is very rare that a new purchase would increase your allowable income since 20% of the income is usually knocked off for maintenance, taxes and insurance and you must have some non-owner occupied experience to immediately count rental income....while this is a gray area I would think it would be unlikely for a new first timer to count rents unless all other areas were strong.I would suggest you go for the single larger loan as the future will be hard to predict.

I love to play sports like Sand Volleyball, flag-football and kickball.  

The market that far out is hard to predict. 

We all hope it never happens,  but no one can predict that we will live forever. 

(I personally think a lot of the predictions of a COVID housing market crash was just "click-bait" and sadly it mislead too many investors.)

for example is folks buy in that inverse U slope in 2013 and later 2025, your reward/risk is higher than those who purchase at 2019.Also, CRE long cycle boom/bust cycle is every 14-15 years so this is pretty predictable.

But ultimately reserves depend on your risk tolerance and predictability of income outside of real estate. 

I talked to my broker about refinancing in 2024, but based on what I’ve read, it’s not predicted to lower THAT much. 

And long-term job growth is predicted.

No one can predict the exact rate of inflation/appreciation, so I wouldn't make such impacting decisions based on what I know is going to be a faulty estimate.