Thanks, Eric.I believe you are correct with your prediction of future growth in the sac area.

But if I would get a loan from a bank now and the property goes down later then is more predictable since the loan is already fixed in place, but if it goes down before I get the loan, then I might not even get a loan.

.- Unless we have deals lined up and a highly predictable deal flow we can raise the fund but only do capital calls once deals are under contract.

Appreciation is also a projection that could be off, whereas a mortgage payment, taxes, HOA, & vacancy rates are easier to predict.

As a newbie, you can take my advice with a grain of salt.The real estate cycle, just like any other economic cycle, is impossible to predict.

That gentleman I referred to earlier has predicted to make 150 million this year.He walks properties "for sale" everyday. 

By working with a trusted advisor who knows their market, you will be able to quickly identify the pockets in each city that will produce a predictable income. 

Not that it cannot be predicted but usually count on the present.Unfortunately, I have spent the last 7 years being bedridden and not being able to work but it has given much time to learn about real estate learning. 

Appreciation prediction is difficult.   3) the index states it takes into account long term appreciation but was not clear if this was a forecast forward or a look backwards.  

I did not mean to imply a junior was ever forced to agree to a short sale...just that the amounts to which they will agree are usually very predictable.