It's only in that scenario that I would break even....so I'd need an even larger crash to have timed the market, so it's a gamble where I'm feeling a bird in the hand is better.  

I've connected with another investor in the area and I'm working with him to bird dog some properties. 

Sounds like another case of the early bird gets the worm, or as @Christopher Hill put it, when opportunity meets preparedness is when you get "lucky".

I am interested in learning about real estate and willing to be a bird dog.

Complex has multitude of amenities and attracts numerous snow birds who rent from Dec-April.

Every reduction in taxes on the rich since then has been accompanied by a degradation of quality of life and a shrinking of the middle class.So get over yourselves, and you'll find that you will actually benefit from paying something that's closer to your fair share of taxes. 

It's a very popular destination known to attract snow birds and tourists from all over the world because of our warm winters, spring training months, golfing, hiking and all of the other amazing things Phoenix is known for.

When discussing this with my property manager, I found out that they are not attending the showings and it's just the prospective tenants agent that accompanies them on the showing. 

*IF* you decided to build 50,000 units in short order it would be accompanied with a story of why the market is undervalued and you would have to be willing to pay a premium to get those units built.  

Sure, but it is about as useful as complaining that gravity prevents us all from flapping our arms real fast and flying like a bird.