Many project oriented businesses (non-RE) cannot predict where their next contract will come from, yet they are still very viable and sustaining businesses.

I agree with your predictions of many investors leaving the city if this kind of thing were to pass.

The red flag for me is: If you're paying full market value (or perhaps even a premium), how will you conventionally refinance in the 16 month time frame (clock starts May 2018), especially if there's a downturn like lots of folk are predicting?

Yet so much more comes into the equation including the ability to finance it in a smaller centre, and would the rents really be as high as he is predicting, appreciation rate lower in small town etc.I have recommended that he consider Kitchener or Waterloo or London even instead.

Buying a new construction home will allow you to bring only the down payment and closing costs and to have a predictably low-maintenance decade or so in front of you. 

No thanks, I want reliability, stability, predictability. 

One of my recent rehabs (one of the purchases from Dec 2021) had a 5 digit window replacement (long story) that I could have never predicted. 

Sometimes it can be according to market, sometimes according to tenants and sometimes according to personal taste (styling to market, broken stuff, re-paints, re-floors, etc)Maintenance is usually less variable (lawn care, cleaning, etc)Cap-ex can be a bit of a variable, though is actually more predictable.

I know it’s harder to predict than LTRs, but wondering if there is a typical range in this market.

Especially when you are working with limited capital you want to keep risks as close to zero as you can, which means you want to invest in a stable neighborhood that is predictable (most are in MKE).