In fact any gain is not recognized when doing a 1031 exchange whether capital or ordinary. 

It is clear from your post that you recognize that you're receiving interest (e.g., $100 interest as part of the first monthly payment). 

Unlike traditional vacancy rates (or the converse occupancy rates), the PRA recognizes that there are differences in rental prices between apartments, meaning, a vacancy for a unit with a monthly rent of $1,000 is not the same as one with a monthly rent of $2,000.

Recognize that and maybe you will have better success getting a good contractor.

So can we make a computer win a video game, chess, jeopardy, recognize a face, and drive a car?

Personally, I think it is the height of arrogance to believe oneself so adept at knowing where prices are and where they are going that one wishes for a recession.

On top of that, most lenders I've talked too do not recognize short term rentals as investments. 

Being new, your goal should trying to figure out how to recognize an opportunity worth pursuing in 30 seconds and analyze a deal in under 5-10 minutes. 

For example:- Bad English/grammar throughout their website ("Real Estate Loan Programme"):- Unrealistic terms (no legit private/hard money lender would offer these terms):- "Standard Terms & Conditions" document provided on their website that sounds just good enough to perhaps convince the unknowing that maybe they're legit, but for someone that knows better this document is easily recognized as a complete joke. 

Meanwhile in their own backyard they could have thrown a dart and did not recognize that opportunity past 5 years.