It seems that LONG term mortgage rates and Inflation have peaked? 

Real estate is a uniquely advantageous type of investment because in MOST (not all) cases inflation will bail out a bad or mediocre investment.4.

What I am saying is I expect the appreciation to be on par with inflation or maybe just a bit in excess of inflation.Also research the 2 of 5 rule as it impacts the gains. 

They rise in reaction to inflation.

ROI - your ROI is way below inflation levels and I don't think inflation will be coming down any time soon with the current economic policies that are set in place.3.

adjusting for inflation in numbers (x 2017 is y 2021), interest rates then vs now and how that impacts pricing (purchasing x home for $300k based on interest rates in june of 2017 is similar to purchasing y home for $526k today), all of the impacts of pricing and some soft calculations of 2 points in time. 

Makes sense for some foreign investors who don't want to send that cash back to their country where they have high inflation or risk of confiscation, but for real local investors, that kind of rent doesn't work well for most people.If you are a recent buyer, probably makes even less sense. 

How do you expect to stay above inflation with that?

If you really wanted to be precise you would need to calculate the tax benefits of mortgage interest deductions and also inflation when comparing a all cash offer vs financing offer?

Regarding Multi's....small towns avoid for the most part but in places like Indiana you are going to overpay as people inflate because its a school town so it is just a hard business to get into in general.