Obviously areas of appreciation can't be entirely predicted...

( 2000 prediction ) is that electric for common areas, exterior lighting and laundry plus gas for laundry ?

Hard to predict so long out... but I'm pretty sure I'm ready to own in OC.

I'm going to make a prediction: you're going to waste a lot of time and be in the same position you are today, at the end of it all.

The Vantage models and their variants have six elements and are actually more predictive of a potential default than FICo.Any time you apply for credit, whether you are accepted or not, you rarely get to find out which model and/or model variant was used to make the accept/deny determination unless you ask for a copy of the report the lender pulled.Hope this helps ...

I'd start by looking up your property on zillow and see what they predict the value to appreciate over the next year or two and start to project out those growth rates (being conservative is always better than being over ambitious and being disappointed later).

It is not getting any bigger so it is reasonable to predict higher than normal appreciation over time. 

I would expect a softer real estate market, which is predicted for NYC.

As for the predictability of a down turn, I'm not sure how possible that is.

@Isaac Pyle My response to your question is not a No but rather a Maybe or It Depends.There is nothing wrong with paying attention to a historically accurate, predictive-value metric like the Yield Curve.