For a multifamily deal, the two critical variables are typically rent inflation (growth) and exit cap rate (sales price at the end of the hold period).

I eventually got to the point in my own turn key business that I stopped including variable expenses (e.g. vacancy, maintenance, CapEx) in the numbers.  

I know there are variables to ever situation.

The plan B in flipping seems non existent, either calculate all variables correctly, or risk losing time and money.

I would like to close on my first BRRRR property in the next month, but the obvious large variable is the rehab cost.

We could see with multi-family what we saw with single-family after 2008 -- a dramatic drop in prices and seller desperation.Now, there are a lot of variables, and it may not play out exactly like this.

I know the point has been made before as well, but if you have long term fixed rate debt, and the market sees rental increases (even if just at rate of inflation) cash flow should increase over the years as well, although variable expenses will increase along with the rental income (taxes, utility rates, etc), but eventually the loan payment will look smaller and smaller based on increasing rental income, so a break even today could look like a great investment in 10 years.  

There are just too many variables that every step would be if/then statements and it would quickly spin out of control.

Wholesaling is a different animal because of all the variables.

Those could be two variables that you could keep track of to gauge risk levels for your rental investments in the area.