The mortgage broker and buyer's broker are telling me how confident they are that the deal will close (100% they say).

RE boom-bust cycles are a fairly recent phenomenon and we don't really know enough about them to make confident predictions.

Our plan will be to raise the rents to either $600 or $625, which we're confident we will be able to get after renovating each apartment. 

utm_source=search&utm_medium=internal&utm_campaign=books (books recommended by BPers)Also, you can review the quick links below to help solidify your grip on this site. http://www.biggerpockets.com/startherehttp://www.biggerpockets.com/meetSetting up Keyword AlertsHow to Use @Mentions on BiggerPocketshttps://www.biggerpockets.com/ruleshttps://www.biggerpockets.com/inviteshttps://www.udemy.com/biggerpockets-real-estate-investing-course/ (video with 64 lectures and approx 6hrs of material)https://www.biggerpockets.com/real-estate-investing (Ultimate beginner's guide to REI)After becoming more knowledgeable and confident take action to snag your first real estate investment deal.Here are some solid tips before buying your 1st investment propertyhttps://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2014/12/19/real-estate-investing-success-smart-tips/Don't get caught up in analysis paralysis.Take calculated risks if needed and you shall be rewarded!"

Here are some other options you might consider:Talk to some other banks.Inquire about the seller financing the 25% (the upside to the seller is they can defer some capital gains and they make more money on the interest).If you're confident you're buying under the market value of the property you might be able to use hard or private money then refi after you get the property up and running.Good luck!

Being a math nerd myself, I have a detailed spread sheet that I am pretty confident captures all of the details, which is how I developed the high level results above.  

In 2010 I started buying real estate heavily...I bought before the bottom, so my investments lost money for the first 9 months, but I was confident they would come back, and they did.You need to be diversified in both asset classes.  

I am in the process of that 2 year plan @Dave Foster, just 6 months left to go!

We've tried to foster an amazing culture from the start . . .

This will give you a chance to try out some negotiating skills and will give you some confidence in dealing with people.