If I was in your shoes, I'd probably use a rough DCF with a discount rate over 20% to get yourself into the ball park of what to offer.

You could also do seller financing if you're not comfortable with the HML.

Given the current situation, even if I lower it to 1150, I think I still have enough room in my numbers to cash flow comfortably.

- PM rates vary per area. 10% is average but other locations are either higher/lower or may even be a flat fee.As long your solid on all of the above (Which by no means is a complete list) and the cash flow is something you are comfortable with (everyone is different) then it's up to you to decide if it's worth continuing down the path of this deal or finding another.

I find that getting comfortable on the income side of these investments is tough for a lot of first time vacation rental investors. 

Find one that you feel comfortable with and that understands your situation and go with it.Stephanie 

Applying that idea to an area I’m more comfortable with may give some insight as to the neighborhoods I might want to eventually consider.Thank you all Again for the great insight so far!

So hearing all these different opinions and perspectives, you are just hearing it from someone's point of few that is at a place that they are comfortable.

@Paul SassinKey work is clause, not law.Just make sure everyone knows the risk.If you don't feel comfortable with it, you shouldn't do it

Our level “comfortability” has also gone up with the kiddo.