Now I am certianly not predicting another round of GFC if i thought that was going to happen I would not be out there building myself these days.  

Bottom line is you can't predict what the market will do.

Likely, their only profit will be any residual cash flow left over after they've paid retail for everything along the line (as you said).And will that cash flow conform to pro forma predictions?

My crystal ball says we have not reached the peak yet, but natural disaster is hard to predict. 

I have, and commonly do use my past results to predict 1-year and 3-year future positions.

We don't want to get mixed up in their financial affairs ("I paid all of the deposit" etc,")  And we'd like to be covered as much as possible as we predict, but don't know that, there could be significant damage/costs and unpaid rent at the end of the lease. 

I don’t plan on Dutchtown appreciating in value in the near future, and some predictions I’ve read actually anticipated that it’d depreciate some over the next year.

Most of Iowa is in Zone 1, which the EPA states has the "Highest Potential" for radon: Zone 1 counties have a predicted average indoor radon screening level greater than 4 pCi/L (picocuries per liter) (red zones) A basic radon test can be picked up from your local hardware store with results usually only taking a couple of days to come back.

We are more of a buy and hold type than a fix and flip (especially since we are not that experienced with rehabbing property...not yet) and receiving secure, predictable monthly rent is more appealing to us. 

And starting out, with self management, it’s OKAY to not count the property management fee….I know that’s un-popular on BP but I feel like that thinking came during the era of deals being bought during 2010-2015 when everything was low from the last crash and doing nothing but go up during the last bull run….I used to worry about every penny on net cash flow and for me, it was a type of analysis paralysis…..investing beyond cash flow has set me free and let me factor in so many other things like appreciation, equity growth, and reduction of taxes paid especially being self employed now… That is WAY more than you asked me….but I am just saying keep doing the analysis but man at some point you will only know what the net cash flow really is by having something giving you CF….and in reality it is not always perfectly predictable - someone loses a job and stops paying, breaks a lease, a hot water tank goes out, etc, and it wipes out CF for awhile and doesn’t fit into the perfect 5% capex / vacancy reserve formula…just my opinion.