If rates do the opposite of what the street is predicting, and HELOC rates were to rise, and I can still comfortably cover that higher HELOC rate, and all my other ducks are in a row, why not leverage the equity in my home if other ducks are in a row?

The second is the lack of predictability.

you don't sell it unless it's margin call.In real estate market since there's 30 margin call, everything is predictable, as long as you can pay the mortgage you are all set.Problem mostly happened due to personal issue, for example, if one is having 8000k monthly mortgage , RE price going down, and folks get lay off.but even then, in reality, in real estate market post 2008, even if market tanks, it's shortlived, the downturn post 2008 only occured for six months, very easy to mitigage as long as one doesn't over-leverage and two, having backup plan.

My thought is to keep it until about 6 months before your time limit is up.No one can accurately predict if and when we will have a recession or even what affect that might have on the housing market.   

LTRs, on the other hand, may provide more stability and predictable cash flow.From what I've gathered the key to successful real estate investing is to remain disciplined, focused, and patient.

No one can predict the future and if you move that to other properties, who is to say those don't drop.

Screen the tenants and understand their lifestyles to predict if this might be an issue.

I can handle the building analysis, I’m more interested in what the locaL rules are, tenants, and predictions for the city’s culture and overall vibe are over the next few years. 

The OP is asking if he should bet on appreciation and my answer is that the data - and the experts - appear to indicate depreciation is coming first.It's a free country and nobody can predict the future, so do what you want with it.California Median Prices, December of Each Year, 1990-2021YearLos Angeles CountyOrange CountyVentura CountySan Bernardino CountyRiverside CountySan Diego CountySanta Barbara County2021$826,500$1,182,500$850,000$460,000$586,000$836,700$937,5002020$660,000$950,000$740,000$378,500$488,250$730,000$970,0002019$641,340$840,000$657,000$320,000$420,000$655,000$770,0002018$588,140$785,000$640,000$295,000$398,000$618,500$840,0002017$577,690$785,500$645,000$278,000$385,000$605,000$730,000YearLos Angeles CountyOrange CountyVentura CountySan Bernardino CountyRiverside CountySan Diego CountySanta Barbara County2016$522,520$745,000$589,150$255,000$360,000$568,000$735,0002015$502,750$700,000$601,910$234,080$341,000$530,000$602,5002014$464,650$683,490$569,600$216,020$322,020$494,500$655,0002013$439,830$677,660$535,180$199,020$310,020$479,690$701,9202012$367,400$582,930$446,150$158,540$251,520$418,290$588,230

You can't predict the future but you can make educated assumptions about the market, neighborhood, and street.