You can not predict the future.

You can tell if you are going to need cosmetics from the pictures but system replacements will be harder to predict.

Another thing to keep in mind is if you need to refi to get money out in a couple years in the future for your next down payment there is a big possibility you will be doing so at a higher interest rate.If you pay more down you are not reducing what you are paying monthly just shortening the number of payments in 25-30 years.It looks to me you are in a growth stage and having a stable predictable property with more debt (paying off at a regular rate).

So I'd still 1031 that to avoid tax but put it into something debt free that simply produces net predictable cash. 

RealtyTrac predictions), the residential properties are worth ~$3.5mm in total (give or take).

We all think we can predict the future, but nobody can. 

This usually works best for something that's mass produced and has a predictable lifespan.

@Russell BrazilThis is about as accurate as any prediction we can come up with (and frankly better than most).

Any predictions how long this situation could last? 

That's true - I cannot predict the future either.