Snow is hard to predict but could snow during 6 months of the year with 3 being peak where there could be 2-3 storms per month.

If this storm is as bad as predicted I can’t see the sale happening or even the market recovering for months if not years.

This way you enjoy a year of cash flow (if your numbers are actually what you predict), then 1031 exchange into something that cash flows better, like multifamily outside of Nashville. 

Rentals are more predictable and carry less risk.

I can't predict national markets; so, I invest to force appreciation and generate cash flow...and invest in properties and locations that are less susceptible to negative market swings.

Instead it is having tight systems and processes to produce a predictable outcome just doing the things they are supposed to.  

I'm not trying to be a "downer" but... all these optimistic predictions from people who financially benefit from optimistic conditions in the market are a bit misleading. 

I like this one.3) Highest risk because too much carrying costs with hard money, inability to predict where market will be when it's time to sell (9 months + modular construction time), opportunity cost if your funds are tied up and another deal comes along so I'm not a fan, negative cashflow like crazy over a long period of time is no bueno.Like the numbers on your deal, too bad 9 months + build time is really far out.

You can't predict future liquidity, lending standards, interest rates, etc.

then I'd predict that agent is not going to last long in this industry.