I predict we will see a modest increases in inventory and modest decrease in price the rest of 2023, with interest rates beginning to head South towards 5% in 2024.

I would really like to find a solid way to predict vacancy rates.Thank you,Travis

I can honestly say that overall I've a pretty good and predictable investment experience, which is exactly what I've been looking for.

As the post mentions, I am exhausted reading posts from everyone trying to predict what is going to happen next.

It is very rare that a new purchase would increase your allowable income since 20% of the income is usually knocked off for maintenance, taxes and insurance and you must have some non-owner occupied experience to immediately count rental income....while this is a gray area I would think it would be unlikely for a new first timer to count rents unless all other areas were strong.I would suggest you go for the single larger loan as the future will be hard to predict.

The market that far out is hard to predict. 

We all hope it never happens,  but no one can predict that we will live forever. 

(I personally think a lot of the predictions of a COVID housing market crash was just "click-bait" and sadly it mislead too many investors.)

for example is folks buy in that inverse U slope in 2013 and later 2025, your reward/risk is higher than those who purchase at 2019.Also, CRE long cycle boom/bust cycle is every 14-15 years so this is pretty predictable.

But ultimately reserves depend on your risk tolerance and predictability of income outside of real estate.