Are you an investor or a speculator?  

I suspect every market at the top end of the list is a historically high appreciating market.As for those that believe expecting appreciation for a well researched market is speculating, why is it any more speculation than expecting cash flow returns to not decrease? 

Some do but seasoned investors call that SPECULATING and not investing.

Maybe you could add some context with a real property to your scenario.Part of the reason BRRRR kills new investors is that they can't grasp the concept quickly enough that you need to buy at extreme discount, have a conservative renovation, then get a generous appraisal...its a trifecta to work perfectly...very rare.One failure of your assessment above is that you are presenting a residential property...so, comparable sales method is your appraisal method (period.)...and that is completely dependent on market conditions from one six month window to the next....assuming your market will produce value is speculation and it's an assumption of risk many folks can't stomach. 

Maximizing profit is exactly what the Realtors, lenders and investors/speculators have done in a rampant fashion, and back to the original question posed by the OP- thats the root of the problem you speak of.

I'm saying the American middle class is trained into a very high expectation that they must be paid for their work, to the point where it becomes incredibly difficult for them to do any work on any speculative terms for which they are unsure of the terms of payment.

I consistently see cash buyers overpay for a property and, being well aware of this, many investors and speculators (builders, wholesaler, agents, etc) target cash buyers with properties because they know they don't have to "worry" about a low appraisal.So, in theory "cash is king" leads to discounts on deals, but if we approach the subject with intellectual honesty we'll find that this frequently isn't the case.  

@Mike McKinzie  Oh no you cant really be thinking about appreciation.. that's gambling.. that's speculation , that's icing on the cake LOL.. unfortunately  your thought process and mine are very much a minority thought process on BP.BP tends to be cash flow first foremost and always.. to the point that beginning investors actually believe it and take the risk chasing very high paper yields with no clue the risk they are taking. 

Definitely mass exodus out of the city but seems very speculative.

Who says there's no cash-flow in the Bay Area and appreciation is speculation?