Guessing about how an appraiser will come up with an ARV is also out of the ordinary for a loan officer.I would tell the loan officer that you will wait to see what the appraiser comes up with and avoid any monkeying around with the numbers on the executed contract based on speculation about the appraisal.

So when all these speculators are making all these predictions about the next market downturn, I don't listen to them.

Regarding "getting in now and realizing the appreciation over the next 2 years may still make sense even if I have to lose around $5k in negative cash flow during that time," I see that as speculative at best.

There is a tremendous surcharge to 'Triangle' housing at the moment, but the appreciation of the housing market is no different than the appreciation of the stock market: its future is speculation at best. 

They know what we look for in a rental and bring them to our attention, it's great.As far as the turnkey/network buying:PROS for BUILDER:  (1) Source of qualified buyers, often 1031 exchange buyers  (2) Builder knows what RE investors and renters want, builds to that standard -- floorplans, amenities -- no change orders to deal with  (3) Investors don't have the contingency to sale current home (4) Save on marketing time and costs, no open houses, flat referral fee to network, no agent/broker fees (5) I would think investors are easier to work with, less drama (that's speculation, lol)PROS for BUYER:  (1) Builder already vetted, although you're foolish not to do your own legwork  (2) Buyer's network has some clout, the builder doesn't want to mess up that relationship so more responsive (3) Usually other investors you can network within that market to vet the area, builder, the management company (4) Ease of transactionIn JAX/Ocala we've found  RWN affiliate quality is outstanding, good workmanship, desirable floorplans, quality granite, stainless. 

The GoldMoney path is full of red-tape and speculation and fees.

And I do not do speculative investing.

The distressed property purchase of a fixer-upper always depends on the neighborhood, city, waiting time, submission process, and tax.The California Housing Speculation Act proposes to add a 25% tax on the portion of capital gain from sale or exchange within three years.

I would not speculate on property unless you drive the neighborhood.

That way you are not just very familiar with your area, but you know what is worth it or not, and what areas are worth your REI model, so you don't speculate or spend additional time.