Hi John,To give you an idea I have 7 clients from California right now doing 1031's into commercial property in other states.California has great equity growth through appreciation speculation but like you I believe that last for only so long.

But no speculation in terms of the returns upfront.

Please give us some specific numbers, or we can only speculate.

I hear you, but how do you get a seller to drop his price substantially based on a very likely, but speculative property tax hike? 

Below is an extensive analysis of the spring 2017 SF housing market, which btw, negates much of the wild speculation posited in this tread. https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/june-2017-crazy-hot-san-francisco-market-again

Then, the question becomes is expecting the long term historical average appreciation rates over the last 40+ years (no more, no less) averaged out over a long holding period make you a speculator?

Another reason IMO the whole "I'm not going to factor in appreciation rates because that is speculating" business is nonsensical to me ... because they can be negative too and ignoring it in these types of markets can get you into trouble ... whether the appreciation rates are negative, zero, or positive, they will have a profoundly important impact on your business model and exit strategies over the long term, whether you like it or not and whether you admit it or not. 

I am not speculating.

Everything is speculation. 

It is all speculation.