I hear you, but how do you get a seller to drop his price substantially based on a very likely, but speculative property tax hike? 

Below is an extensive analysis of the spring 2017 SF housing market, which btw, negates much of the wild speculation posited in this tread. https://www.paragon-re.com/trend/june-2017-crazy-hot-san-francisco-market-again

Then, the question becomes is expecting the long term historical average appreciation rates over the last 40+ years (no more, no less) averaged out over a long holding period make you a speculator?

Another reason IMO the whole "I'm not going to factor in appreciation rates because that is speculating" business is nonsensical to me ... because they can be negative too and ignoring it in these types of markets can get you into trouble ... whether the appreciation rates are negative, zero, or positive, they will have a profoundly important impact on your business model and exit strategies over the long term, whether you like it or not and whether you admit it or not. 

I am not speculating.

Everything is speculation. 

It is all speculation.  

I choose to leave a lot more cash in deals and you’ll often catch me saying “appreciation is speculation.”

@Paul Walker $30k is tight...you can find a deal in Columbus, but you'll be confined to renovation projects or C/D locations with higher crime and lots of speculation...though, there are some exceptions to this...it will take perseverance and patients to find the right deal.Toledo will give you many more options across the board...better properties in better condition and location.I'd be curious why you landed on those 2 markets...nothing personal, but it's like comparing a Ferrari to a Ford...I'm sure there are markets in your own state much closer you can find deals in.Best of luck

@David FalkoffIn the webinar slide deck I attended for the EIDL loan, they indicated you cannot use this loan for "speculative real estate purposes."