this is an age old question on BP..you have the Cash flow is the only thing crowd and appreciation is gambling .. and then you have those who invested in markets that historically appreciate who have gotten majorly rich over the last 7 to 10 years on appreciation with no cash flow to speak of.  

Can you find some data on this historically for your market?

While looking for a market there are some things to think about getting into that market not just price, the application of the market, the stability of the market for jobs/job growth, the long term of the market conditions in that market, and the historical trends in that market that you pick/look at.The areas that fit the things above that you feel good about are then narrowed down to price, price is a leading indicator on if you can do the deal or not, we have areas that are luxury, secondary markets and vacation markets that people invest in STRs (this area is the cheapest prices considered).

Recessions are also historically followed by several years of strong rent growth, therefore it's important to set up your investment with preservation of principal as a top priority.

I can give you historical interest and dividend crediting rates, but understand that each policy has a different mix of indexing strategies, different anniversary dates, etc.

When this is a historical analysis, it should tell you exactly what you made, including appreciation. 

4.875 is very low from historical standards.

Considering how historically low interest rates are it would be considered an excellent time to unlock equity with cheap debt to go out and purchase another income producing asset. 

I think real estate has historically been considered a good investment.

Looking for historical rents in Long beach CA from 2008 to now.