That is below a 1% monthly rent to price ratio which will equate to negative cash flow.

From the commercial side, shutting down a profitable business to open a brand new one adds some uncertainty to the equation. 

So there is another part to this equation. 

This is how I handle both sides of the equation.

.- Vacancy, Concessions and Rent Loss- Capital Expenses (CapEx)So, it's more than just "expenses" (by the accounting definition of the term), but doesn't include any mortgage/debt service.Basically, the 50% refers to your Net Operating Income (NOI) if you want to put in those terms.Assuming your 5% for "reserves" equates to your long-term capital budget, then it looks like you're pretty close with your assessment, though I don't see vacancy in your numbers...

Ideally I could stay close to where I am now as I have two children plus this area of KC is very desirable and would draw a quality tenant and equate to appreciation in my investment.

The "we'll lend up to 70% of the ARV" refers to only a portion of the equation. 

All of these different equations are a bit confusing.

By going directly to the listing agent you completely eliminate one side of the equation which provides an incentive for the listing agent to look at  your offer a bit closer since they are potentially getting a higher commission than 3%; additionally you can request that a portion of what would go to your agent go back into the Seller's pocket - however whether that happens or not, is up to the listing agent they may keep it all or split it with the Seller; either way you win... you're offer has received attention.  

This is the best of times and the worst of times....Now is the time to do the "RIGHT" deals.We've been Developers for 47 years through 5 Recessions and I think we've seen most of it.The key is to buy the asset or note at a deep discount (first safety valve), that had a major rehab in the past 5 years (second safety valve), then canvas the existing tenants and sell to them at a total carry (Mortgage/taxes/HOA) that equates to their current rent (third safety valve) thus minimizing Marketing and Sales Commissions ( fourth safety valve) -and that includes taking back a Seller 2nd if necessary, and credit repair if necessary, then in parallel sell the balance to investors with tenants in place (for the units that tenants didn't/couldn't buy) (fifth safety valve), and then sell the balance to the general market (discounted if necessary after all the other deals are done).An acquisition loan for condo conversion will be tough to buy the Project and then have the buyers get individual mortgages as the exit strategy.We have the answer to that -if we JV....