I just finished listening to Podcast 188: Using 20+ Years of Studying Market Cycles to Buy Low & Sell High with David Gudmundsen and I am determined to be a real estate agent and investor who is  on top of how the market is doing beyond reading a monthly magazine and looking at the real estate inventory in terms of months!

Many markets are now headed into "Hypersupply" and "Recession" phases of the market cycle (see chart below).

Your NYC market is a double edge sword for the educated buyer that does there due diligence it can be the best market in North America and your timing could not be better near the end of a bust cycle. night mare tenants come and go but wait and see what happens to rents after QE-3 hammers the dollar and the fiscal cliff becomes reality as the government inflates its way to paying for baby boomer ss and medical costs.

The second step is, OK, overvalued means we have got to pay closer attention to where we are in the cycle than when prices in our market were undervalued.  

As far as real estate cycles hotels tend to do best when the economy is good or the perception of it is good in they eyes of corporations and the general public.So right now on an alternative comparison asset class analysis you could say apartments are overvalued and peaking in the cycle.

The sale notice is late in the cycle.

That is an extremely short term cycle, and an extreme example, but its the point im trying to illustrate.My advice, if you hadn't already gathered it, would be to stop considering your $20,000 as something you have to invest in 1 thing.

I don't think we will see 3.75% ever again this cycle.

Do I have to accept the rent and wait another month and a half (full rent cycle) to kick her out?

In the cycle right now there is some great value but in a low risk way.