The numbers look great on this property minus the rental situation, with a $400 cash flow with generous vacancy and maintenance % estimates of 10% and 30% respectively. 

I would appreciate any suggestions for evaluating the strength of the market to determine the risk if there were a vacancy. 

The variable expenses are property management, maintenance, vacancy,  and unreimbursed utilities. 

Low vacancy, great job market, and a lower barrier to entry make The Twin Cities one of the BEST markets for a newer investor (in my very biased opinion).

Study different markets, learn about the local economy, employment rate, population growth, vacancy rates, major employers, city’s development plans, property prices, government rules and so on and then take an informed decision.

I use 8% vacancy, 5% repairs and 10% capex.

I use 23% for vacancy, repairs and capex.

I am currently using 10% property manager, 5% maintenance, 10% capex, 5% vacancy, $125 monthly insurance.

I had one leave due to family emergency, but that was rented quickly with no vacancy. 

How did you arrive at a 2% vacancy.