And in any case, is appreciation not just risk with no control (i.e. gambling)?

It's a gamble but it may be the only way to escape without a major loss.

For one or two, its a gamble where the absolute savings is not worth the risk.

I never thought about appreciation as gambling but it makes sense.

OR I would learn a skill-based facet of gambling (poker, blackjack, for example) and see if I could multiply it that way. 

It really does seem like a gamble but I would think that this place will appreciate.  

That being said, also no guarantee you can get the bid so the cost of inspections can be a gamble too.Best of luck!

In other words, I'm wondering if all HOA fees should be considered in excess of the maintenance-vacancy-CapEx calculations, or maybe all of this just a big gamble.

@Jacqueline Basset  there is common theme that runs to investors after 08... appreciation is speculation and gambling its all about cash flow.. so these folks buying these are going in with the idea that the properties will never go up.. over time their tenant pays them off so now they are free and clear and they make positive cash flow yearly.. thats the premise and what this decade of investor sentiment is the prevailing thinking

Best of luck in your wholesaling adventures.