You will not be  declined for a conventional loan just because you do not have to your 2018 taxes completed. 

What I mean is look for signs the neighborhood is improving instead of declining.

It doesn't make sense to me why a hospital would pay a nurse's salary AND their cost of living if they could just hire locally, so I feel like long-term this trend will decline.

Economic downturns or shifts in market dynamics can lead to declines in property values, affecting the potential appreciation of investments.ConclusionInvesting in commercial real estate can offer unique opportunities for investors seeking higher returns, portfolio diversification, and long-term stability.

New home builder margins in 2022 were roughly double what they were two years ago but all national builders are seeing the same thing - new orders declining significantly.

Rates have doubled but the home prices in San Diego have barely declined. 

My sell discipline is to get out if I get a big pop and get out if I think values will decline.  

In this market where we pray rates will decline in the future this is a HUGE consideration when you state you already have the down payment saved.

That leads to deferred maintenance, and in an unrelenting environment, neglect can lead to a decline in quality or value. 

All that said, I think, in the long run, that values will continue to increase in CA (but don't ask me to explain why people would still move there with the State in the financial shape it's in, and especially if the economy declines.)